tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post1324300234948399077..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: Freakonomics: High-Speed Rail and CO2Robert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-61865521536395396382009-07-30T01:05:09.408-07:002009-07-30T01:05:09.408-07:00Eric Morris' analysis works if it is assumed t...Eric Morris' analysis works if it is assumed that there isn't a capacity problem on existing roads and airports and no new capacity must be created. But that simply isn't true.<br /><br />That a lot of pollution will be created to build the goddamn train is true. So what? It's irrelevant because something has to be built, whether it's another airport or more runways, or more highways and wider highways. <br /><br />If Eric Morris wants to get hardcore with his marginal analysis, what is the marginal utility of an extra lane of highway? Does adding a lane to a six lane highway really add as much capacity as the first or second lanes did? Probably not, as you invite more merging and more cars, which means more accidents and more pissed off drivers.<br /><br />Building new capacity in the form of rail is the right way to go because current infrastructure is so clogged. You can't widen highways much more. You can't build many more airports. To feed a growing nation's thirst for travel, we gotta go rail. Hell, there's plenty of abandoned right of way to resurrect. That's capacity going to waste! It's just sitting there waiting for a big construction company to turn it into something useful. <br /><br />There is also potential for induced demand, that is, trips that will be taken just because the high speed rail is there, trips that weren't being taken because roads and airports were so congested. On these trips people spend money on crap, which stimulates the economy, and as the project nears its 100th birthday and we're long dead, so much money will have been spent on these induced trips alone that the beneficiaries would be singing the praises of the high speed rail network if only they were aware of this <i>hidden</i> benefit.<br /><br />HSR is a public good, and it allows your small business owning ass the opportunity to sell a worthless trinket to some fat tourist in San Francisco who would have never driven there or flown there otherwise. So kiss my fat ass Eric Morris.Spokkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03244298044953214810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-79468548510612863412009-07-28T12:28:31.206-07:002009-07-28T12:28:31.206-07:00@ Fred Martin...
I want experts appointed by elece...@ Fred Martin...<br />I <i>want</i> experts appointed by eleceted officials, which isn't always what I get...TomWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13453251490705724225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-9197201896157611142009-07-27T09:24:27.382-07:002009-07-27T09:24:27.382-07:00TomW, I hope you are not suggesting that Quentin &...TomW, I hope you are not suggesting that Quentin "BART-to-Millbrae" Kopp and Rod "father of North America's worst light rail system" Diridon are "experts"???Fred Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-90569041161884230042009-07-27T08:05:33.886-07:002009-07-27T08:05:33.886-07:00Andre Peretti said...
"@BruceMcF
TGV lines ar...Andre Peretti said...<br />"<i>@BruceMcF<br />TGV lines are built without subsidies</i>"<br /><br />Of course, SNCF already had the kind of metro access via existing rail corridors that the California system is required to build ... and the first corridor faced no capital costs like the tunneling project between the Central Valley and the LA Basin.<br /><br />Most HSR projects around the world are built with some form of capital subsidy. However, because of the ability to generate an operating surplus, they do not require a 100% capital subsidy and, as you point out, in some cases the operating surplus is sufficient to fund the majority of the capital cost of the corridor.<br /><br />SNCF is also facing a market in which car transport is much less heavily subsidised, with gas taxes sufficient to cover the majority of the costs that motorists impose upon society. By contrast, in the US, cars are not even required to fund the full cost of road maintenance, and get a total free ride on the external costs that they impose.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-80838314223263798042009-07-27T06:22:43.904-07:002009-07-27T06:22:43.904-07:00Fred Martin said: "State elected bodies shoul...Fred Martin said: "State elected bodies should have control over state money"<br />I quite agree. Which is why CHSRA can't spend a dime more than the elected leglislature gives it. However, once a budget has been decided, I want experts appointed by elected officals to decide how best to spend it.TomWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13453251490705724225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-43224349229083403082009-07-27T01:04:27.923-07:002009-07-27T01:04:27.923-07:00At least Alan Lowenthal is democratically elected;...At least Alan Lowenthal is democratically elected; that should count for something. State elected bodies should have control over state money -- what's surprising about that basic concept?? Quentin Kopp and Rod Diridon certainly are not democratically elected, and Rod Diridon has a huge personal interest in the HSR project: directing billions of dollars to "his" namesake station.Fred Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-58657137518186052912009-07-26T23:49:48.520-07:002009-07-26T23:49:48.520-07:00The Legislature cannot effectively make financial ...The Legislature cannot effectively make financial decisions for the state. Term limits have produced a legislative body that is disincentivized from implementing a long-term project such as this. The way the Legislature currently operates enables people like Roy Ashburn and Alan Lowenthal, who will happily undermine the will of the voters in order to pursue their own ideological or parochial concerns.<br /><br />While that behavior is not unique to the CA Legislature, the current rules under which it operates have removed any countervailing force. In the 1950s you had state legislators working hard to get the State Water Project implemented, and they stayed around to oversee its construction and operations over the following two decades. They provided effective oversight because they cared about getting it right.<br /><br />The way the Legislature works right now actively undermines that kind of long-term project management. What does Alan Lowenthal care about an intrastate fast train? He won't be around in 2018 to see it open. But he might have a political career in local government in Southern California, where a train to SF won't help him one bit, but where improved Metrolink service will.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-34288833219286663602009-07-26T21:30:18.548-07:002009-07-26T21:30:18.548-07:00So it's the broken leading the broken -- is th...So it's the broken leading the broken -- is that where we're headed?<br /><br />I perceive the CHSRA as a dysfunctional organization with corrupt leadership, and the legislature is attempting to address that problem. What makes you think they'll be ineffective in achieving oversight?Board Watchernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-74057859513922018522009-07-26T21:13:17.933-07:002009-07-26T21:13:17.933-07:00Oversight is good in theory. But the California Le...Oversight is good in theory. But the California Legislature is incapable of effectively exercising oversight. (This is because it is a broken institution incapable of governing the state, and is by no means unique to HSR.)<br /><br />The CHSRA may be OK with this, but I'm not.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-20391438647518268562009-07-26T21:09:53.591-07:002009-07-26T21:09:53.591-07:00@Robert -
The Board was aware of the budget bill l...@Robert -<br />The Board was aware of the budget bill language and didn't have a problem with it, except for the one sentence which took them by surprise. The rest of the conditions were laid out to them during legislative hearings and budget subcommittee hearings. Diridon himself said he had no problem meeting the conditions. I don't see why the language should bother you - a little oversight might be good for them, don't you think?Board Watchernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-25941594411824769622009-07-26T20:46:48.317-07:002009-07-26T20:46:48.317-07:00@BruceMcF
TGV lines are built without subsidies. T...@BruceMcF<br />TGV lines are built without subsidies. The Paris-Lyon line was financed with 10-years bond floated on the international financial market (mostly Wall Street and London) because the French state was against the project and refused to advance the funds. The bonds were paid off in 8 years because ridership was higher than anticipated. <br />The other lines received funds from regional councils. In fact RFF resorts to a sort of blackmail: it designs a route avoiding built up areas and then asks cities to pay the extra cost if they don't want to be by-passed. Some accept, others don't. That explains why some stations are like airports in the middle of nowhere. This has made RFF very impopular with local politicians and the state will probably have to subsidise future lines to some extent.Andre Perettinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-76502034441747432242009-07-26T19:45:12.589-07:002009-07-26T19:45:12.589-07:00Morris, thanks for reporting on the HSR funding la...Morris, thanks for reporting on the HSR funding language. It does seem like a mixed bag - the "HSR killer" appears to be gone, but Senator Lowenthal has succeeded in his silly and potentially financially reckless demands for unnecessary and duplicative levels of planning and study. As far as I can tell what he's done is written his "no money until I see a business plan I like" mentality into state law.<br /><br />Which is unfortunately how things seem to work these days in Sacramento, in our totally broken state government. It's an argument for greater independence for the CHSRA from a legislature that doesn't work.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-31877910800581676272009-07-26T19:42:06.589-07:002009-07-26T19:42:06.589-07:00David,
Thanks for chiming in here. Any chance you...David,<br /><br />Thanks for chiming in here. Any chance you will "show your work" and explain in detail how you arrived at the $80 billion figure?<br /><br />Without that evidence, your claim of $80 billion is simply not credible.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-8724161629542163982009-07-26T18:37:44.688-07:002009-07-26T18:37:44.688-07:00@ Andre Perreti ... when the term "heavily su...@ Andre Perreti ... when the term "heavily subsidised" is being used, its a reference to the capital subsidy, which is often required ... clearly, "work" done by the Reason Foundation will only refer to operating ratios when they are under 100% ... in order to divert from the fact that most HSR corridors return an operating surplus, the focus for HSR is shifted to the capital subsidy (which is, of course, common to all rival inter-regional transport systems as well, which require both capital and operating subsidies).BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-66539555992366631192009-07-26T18:32:05.167-07:002009-07-26T18:32:05.167-07:00flowmotion said...
"Any sort of relative clai...flowmotion said...<br />"<i>Any sort of relative claim about emissions is something that should be studied before a conclusion is assumed.</i>"<br /><br />I am referring to the misrepresentation made by Morris <i>of the study that Morris cites</i>.<br /><br />He is the one that sets out the UK Ministry of Transport commissioned study as his authority, a study that quite clearly includes emissions of construction in its estimates ... that graph I linked to is from page 3, and a similar one for London/Edinburgh is to be found on page 4 ... and then claims that emissions of construction is not taken into account.<br /><br />If Morris did not even get to page 3, he really has no business citing the study as his primary source.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-54754793990941185772009-07-26T17:08:26.157-07:002009-07-26T17:08:26.157-07:00@Morris Brown @David
The fact that an article is w...@Morris Brown @David<br />The fact that an article is written by an assistant professor doesn't automatically render it scholarly. The academic rule is that any assertion has to be documented which is not the case in David Levinson's articles.<br />Example: "Japanese and European HSRs are heavily subsisised". Documents? Of course none, because it's a lie, and thus can't be documented. A real scholar would have produced documents explaining why HSR doesn't have to be subsidised in France or Japan but will have to be in America. Of course, exploiting people's ignorance is easier and a big lie will do the job. How academic.<br />Another example "trains are noisier than cars" makes me wonder whether he has ever approached one of those trains he writes so expertly about. My own experience is that when a TGV line runs along a highway the noise of the train is completely masked by the rumble of the traffic. Or maybe his comparison is one to one: one train, one car.Andre Perettinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-23083501407315232552009-07-26T15:40:39.018-07:002009-07-26T15:40:39.018-07:00BruceMcF says:"HSR" ("Express HSR&q...BruceMcF says:<i>"HSR" ("Express HSR" in the DoT parlance) is clearly projected to emit less in operations and construction than for rail operations alone, which means that the investment in the alternative air transport capacity will all be excess emissions compared to the rail option.</i><br /><br />Perhaps you're missing an "all other things being equal" qualifier, but I don't believe that statement is obvious (or even that relevant). <br /><br />Any sort of relative claim about emissions is something that should be studied before a conclusion is assumed.flowmotionnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-85489083059256991172009-07-26T15:08:18.419-07:002009-07-26T15:08:18.419-07:00The question of language for high speed rail in th...The question of language for high speed rail in the budget,that was finally approved by the legislature was of much interest here a bit ago.<br /><br />I copy the final version below -- credit for finding this to an un-named source, who wishes to not take credit.<br /><br />========<br />ABX4 1 2009 budget bill:<br /><br />SEC. 148. Item 2665-004-6043 of Section 2.00 of the Budget Act of 2009 is amended to read: <br /><br />2665-004-6043--For support of High-Speed Rail Authority, payable in accordance with and from the proceeds of the Safe, Reliable High-Speed Train Bond Act for the 21st<br />Century, payable from the High-Speed<br />Passenger Train Bond Fund................... 139,180,00 <br /><br /><br /> Provisions: <br />The High-Speed Rail Authority <br />is required to post in the <br />2009-10 fiscal year and <br />annually thereafter its budget <br />on their Internet Web site in <br />order to insure public access <br />and transparency. <br />Of the funds appropriated in <br />this item, $139,180,000 is <br />appropriated to the High-Speed <br />Rail Authority for the <br />following purposes: project- <br />level design and environmental <br />review, program management <br />services, financial planning, <br />and public-private partnership <br />program. <br />Of the funds appropriated in <br />this item, $69,590,000 shall <br />be available for expenditure <br />only after January 1, 2010, <br />after the submittal of a <br />revised business plan to, and <br />a 30-day review by, the Joint <br />Legislative Budget Committee <br />that, among other things,<br />addresses, at a minimum: (a) a <br />plan for a community outreach <br />component to cities, towns, <br />and neighborhoods affected by <br />this project, (b) further <br />system details, such as route <br />selection and alternative <br />alignment considerations, (c) <br />a thorough discussion <br />describing the steps being <br />pursued to secure financing, <br />(d) a working timeline with <br />specific, achievable <br />milestones, and (e) what <br />strategies the authority would <br />pursue to mitigate different <br />risks and threats. The <br />authority shall submit the <br />revised business plan to the <br />Joint Legislative Budget <br />Committee no later than <br />December 15, 2009. <br />The revised business plan <br />shall also provide additional <br />information related to <br />funding, project development <br />schedule, proposed levels of <br />service, ridership, capacity, <br />operational plans, cost, <br />private investment strategies, <br />staffing, and a history of <br />expenditures and <br />accomplishments to date. In <br />developing this revised <br />business plan, the authority <br />shall work in consultation <br />with the appropriate<br />legislative policy committees <br />and the Legislative Analyst's <br />Office to respond to specific <br />aspects in the plan. <br />Notwithstanding any other <br />provision of law, funds <br />appropriated in this item from <br />the High-Speed Passenger Train <br />Bond Fund, to the extent <br />permissible under federal law, <br />may be reduced and replaced by <br />an equivalent amount of <br />federal funds determined by <br />the High-Speed Rail Authority <br />to be available and necessary <br />to comply with Section 8.50 <br />and the most effective <br />management of state high-speed <br />rail transportation resources. <br />Not more than 30 days after <br />replacing the state funds with <br />federal funds, the Director of <br />Finance shall notify in <br />writing the chairpersons of <br />the committees in each house <br />of the Legislature that <br />consider appropriations and<br />the Chairperson of the Joint <br />Legislative Budget Committee <br />of this action.Morris Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-15647131076219662352009-07-26T14:46:58.795-07:002009-07-26T14:46:58.795-07:00Rafael:
You should not evade the point that renew...Rafael:<br /><br />You should not evade the point that renewable energy is not even remotely competitive with conventional (fossil fuel production), generation plants. As I wrote before you are looking at a 2 or 3 times greater cost in production. <br /><br />Now I don't know what percentage of the operating costs for this train is going to be the cost of electricity, but it is a major operational item. (most likely the most costly item of operation)<br /><br />So here you want to go nearly twice as fast as say 100 MPH, which will consume about 4 times the energy for the same distance at 1/2 the speed. Then you are saying that the CHSRA will obligate itself to only consume renewable energy, which will cost at least twice as much as competitive power. (BTW, this is all going to be at ticket prices at 60 to 75% of the cost of air fare)<br /><br />Yet, the system is going to generate billions and billions of operational profits, while paying off the equity and profits from the as yet unknown private investors; and will pay for the capital costs to extend the line to San Diego and Sacramento.<br /><br />Amazing. Absolutely amazing.Morris Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-62228280977624978992009-07-26T13:54:34.419-07:002009-07-26T13:54:34.419-07:00(7) If HSR uses clean electricity, that's of c...<i>(7) If HSR uses clean electricity, that's of course wonderful, they will bid higher for clean electricity and someone else will use the dirty electricity</i>.<br /><br /><br />An analogy: If I buy fresh vegetables for my family to eat, that's wonderful, and of course I will pay more for fresh produce and someone else will eat the cheap processed crap. <br /><br />So?<br /><br />If there is a growing demand for clean energy, then there is an incentive to generate more supply. And over time that would, in fact, lead to fewer emissions.Biancahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00660718116529125977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-7639137296594518782009-07-26T10:14:21.402-07:002009-07-26T10:14:21.402-07:00ITS the made up numbers that drive me nuts!! I can...ITS the made up numbers that drive me nuts!! I can make up any number I want ..its only going to cost 14 Billion and write it..that does not make it true..Yet newspapers will print this and because many see it all of sudden its "fact"<br />and reprinted over and over again.<br />And Im sure your very aware of Oil funded think tanks..CATO,Reason foundation..enough I think..and they use your work.YESONHSRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-12552603609554605522009-07-26T09:46:56.015-07:002009-07-26T09:46:56.015-07:00I'm open to the argument concerning diesel mac...<em>I'm open to the argument concerning diesel machines for agricultural use being unfairly hit by this, but, otherwise, meh</em>.<br /><br />I used to be legal and probably still is, to run your machinery - farm and construction equipment - on untaxed fuel. They dye it red so road inspectors can easily detect if it is being used in road vehicles. It's widely available in the Northeast and Midwest, No. 2 heating oil.Adirondacker12800https://www.blogger.com/profile/17108712932656586797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-79988510600319747232009-07-26T09:02:11.475-07:002009-07-26T09:02:11.475-07:00@ David -
thank you for chiming in on this discus...@ David -<br /><br />thank you for chiming in on this discussion. It must be frustrating to have your findings misquoted after an interview.<br /><br />Wrt your points:<br /><br /><i>(6) The appropriate question is: If you had $80 Billion to spend on transportation, what would you spend it on?</i><br /><br />I'd spend it on technology that moves millions of people and/or significant freight tonnage each year without consuming any crude oil in the process. That's because history has shown that an excessive dependence on that particular commodity leads - directly or indirectly - to extremely expensive armed conflicts. <br /><br />For the moment at least, electric trains are the only thing that fits the bill. Of course, that does not mean cost overruns in constructing the requisite infrastructure should be expected, let alone accepted a priori.<br /><br />Historically, large projects are more susceptible to overruns but that's typically because too little was spent on planning and preliminary engineering. In particular, late engineering change orders to satisfy intransigent regulators or litigious NIMBYs can really jack up the price. Contractors bid low to get the contract, then pounce on change orders to increase their profit margins. The key to cost control is therefore to get all the ducks in a row before turning dirt.<br /><br /><i>(7) [...] Can you really track an electron through the electric grid?</i><br /><br />Fortunately, there is no need for that. All CHSRA needs to show is <br /><br />(a) that the additional demand for electricity the HSR system creates prompts someone to invest in sufficient additional renewable generating capacity to nominally cover peak demand and,<br /><br />(b) that over the course of e.g. a year, that new capacity actually generates exactly as many MWhs as the HSR operator purchases.<br /><br />The objective is to avoid additional emissions of CO2 due to HSR operations. However, in terms of climate policy objectives, moment-to-moment fluctuations in exactly how utilities choose to meet the electricity demanded by HSR are irrelevant, provided they verifiably cancel out on a timescale relevant to climate science.<br /><br />Btw, much the same logic applies to biomethane and synthetic natural gas fed into a distribution infrastructure designed for fossil natural gas, cp. the situation in the EU.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-23611540199208902822009-07-26T08:07:39.116-07:002009-07-26T08:07:39.116-07:00The interstate highway network would probably cost...The interstate highway network would probably cost more than $425 billion as construction costs have outpaced the general inflation rate.Spokkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03244298044953214810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-88886221974095358212009-07-26T08:03:30.983-07:002009-07-26T08:03:30.983-07:00@Bruce:
Well put. Whether you can or can't tr...@Bruce:<br /><br />Well put. Whether you can or can't track an electron through the grid is a straw man. In the same way that you can't track a gallon of oil through the oil market. No fuel source is perfect, but electricity can be produced from clean sources. Petroleum will continue to pollute no matter what, and will continue to come from unstable, foreign sources.Arihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06058285362842737187noreply@blogger.com