tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post1483177720387965919..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: Fighting Back Against the New HooversRobert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-52520788940786164072008-10-19T09:22:00.000-07:002008-10-19T09:22:00.000-07:00Thanks rafael. I also favor the project going into...Thanks rafael. <BR/><BR/>I also favor the project going into Ontario and Riverside before heading south into San Diego.<BR/><BR/>The only real sketchy station placement related to this project was Los Banos, and that station is gone now. I'm glad it is.<BR/><BR/>Hopefully they can refrain from building Visalia and we can be all set.Spokkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03244298044953214810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-33087648753600207462008-10-19T00:57:00.000-07:002008-10-19T00:57:00.000-07:00@ spokker -the official reasons for choosing the d...@ spokker -<BR/><BR/>the official reasons for choosing the detour via Palmdale:<BR/><BR/>a) CHSRA conducted extensive computer-aided variation modeling of possible alignments out of the LA basin based on what is known about the geology near the I-5 Grapevine and Tehachapi Pass. The results showed only a single viable alignment featuring both short tunnels and at-grade crossings of both the Garlock and San Andreas faults. There were many such variations for Tehachapi. Since current knowledge of the geology at small scales is imperfect, Tehachapi represents a far lower construction risk.<BR/><BR/>b) the one and only viable I-5 alignment also passes very close to a wildlife preserve near Lake Castaic<BR/><BR/>c) the city and county of LA wants to leverage Palmdale airport to relieve LAX, since nearby residents have blocked the construction of a new runway. In addition, it wants to leverage Ontario airport, one reason why the route to San Diego runs past Riverside.<BR/><BR/>d) the Antelope Valley is indeed one of the fastest-growing areas in Southern California, with a total population close to 1 million. Metrolink does serve Palmdale and Lancaster but it is slow.<BR/><BR/>The city of Palmdale has plans for some transit-oriented development, but the local geography favors sprawl. Hopefully, civic leaders there will consider the impact of becoming a bedroom community for LA, in particular on water distribution, electricity consumption for A/C and, noise issues that would limit the value of the airport. Strategically placed high-density housing would address all three risks and facilitate local transit.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-9680694750622073342008-10-18T19:59:00.000-07:002008-10-18T19:59:00.000-07:00Is this about CAHSR serving Palmdale or something?...Is this about CAHSR serving Palmdale or something? Whoever wrote this in the Wikipedia page for California State Route 14 covered it well I think.<BR/><BR/>"Rapid exurban growth in Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale has made the Antelope Valley Freeway one of the most congested in southern California, with average rush hour speeds well below 20 miles per hour (30 km/h). In response, the government of Palmdale has successfully campaigned for the proposed high-speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco to follow the Antelope Valley Freeway's right-of-way and stop in Palmdale before crossing the Tehachapi Mountains at Tehachapi Pass. Such a route would add 20 minutes to the train's travel time between Los Angeles and San Francisco"<BR/><BR/>Yeah, what basically amounts to "OUR FREEWAY F'ING SUCKS. PLEASE BUILD US A FAST TRAIN FOR THE LOVE OF CHRIST" sounds a lot like these sinister land speculators! The routing will impact MY ride from LA-SF, since I have zero reasons to go to Palmdale. <BR/><BR/>But my mantra ISN'T, "Hey, I got mine. Fuck 'em." I'm voting yes on Prop 1A.Spokkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03244298044953214810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-28512482246127820592008-10-18T19:54:00.000-07:002008-10-18T19:54:00.000-07:00"When a highway was built to move us from south to..."When a highway was built to move us from south to north, I-5 was built. Look at its routing. Pretty straight isn't it?"<BR/><BR/>Yeah, and the I-5 doesn't serve Bakersfield, Fresno, Modesto, Merced, San Jose or San Francisco directly. The I-5 has highways that feed into and out of it. Interstate 5 was also built in the 50s in an extremely pro-automobile environment. <BR/><BR/>And if we build HSR in a straight line, from LA to SF, like the I-5, are other cities going to vote for LA-SF's rail line? The point of the routing is to get as many cities on-board as possible while still maintaining high speeds. <BR/><BR/>I don't think we could accomplish building this system piece by piece because our legislature is gutless and people will not vote for something that does not directly benefit them. <BR/><BR/>I don't like that it has to be all or nothing, but the reality is that it's the best shot for building high speed rail in this state.Spokkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03244298044953214810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-26340193556429497362008-10-18T11:50:00.000-07:002008-10-18T11:50:00.000-07:00What has happened to the discussion of this projec...What has happened to the discussion of this project lately is the discussion has moved from a discussion of the project per se, to a discussion of the fiscal crisis the State and the Country is now immersed.<BR/><BR/> Robert talks about defeating the new "Hoovers". He won't recognize that the history of the 30's was one where huge WPA projects did ease the depression but certainly did not take the country out of depression. Only World War II accomplished that.<BR/><BR/> Now we are hardly right now in a depression. What may happen in the future no one can say for sure, but to be promoting this project as it must be approved because we need to get out of this fiscal crisis in not appropriate.<BR/><BR/> In any case, those kinds of projects need to be instituted at the Federal level. The Feds can literally print money; thank heavens the State doesn't have that ability. The State by constitutional law must approve balanced budgets. To my way of thinking, the State's budget is hardly balanced. It is contrived; it would never pass accounting standards for publicly listed companies. <BR/><BR/> Now here is a project that from the beginning has never been about moving people from from the south to the north. One only need look at the routing and see all those bends so that the train will pass through the urban areas of the central valley to understand what this is all about. The project is welfare for the central valley. This project is a dream project for developers and land speculators. The project has been led by politicians who are only interested in feathering their own nests. When a highway was built to move us from south to north, I-5 was built. Look at its routing. Pretty straight isn't it? That was a project designed for moving people and freight efficiently and has accomplished its goal.<BR/><BR/> How many faults does one have to point out in order to get voters to recognize this project for what it is. It is a boondoggle, as many media publications have written. No business plan. A route from San Gilroy that is not available, since it is owned by another RR, and they won't allow it usage.<BR/><BR/> No, this is bummer. Kill it. Vote No on Prop 1A.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-26266957448417583722008-10-18T10:45:00.000-07:002008-10-18T10:45:00.000-07:00Kris Vosburgh argues that approving HSR would amou...Kris Vosburgh argues that approving HSR would amount to blithely ignoring the fiscal realities of the state of California. His reasoning is actually sound at the level of the individual, which is why it sounds beguilingly sensible for the state as well.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, economists such as Nobel laureate Joseph Stieglitz tell us that governments sometimes have to act in counter-intuitive ways to achieve a chance of achieving the desired result. In an <A HREF="http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1851739,00.html" REL="nofollow">op-ed</A> in Time magazine, he argues that "the original Paulson plan is like a massive blood transfusion to a patient with severe internal hemorrhaging." Conservative ideological rigor almost led to a misallocation of $700 billion of taxpayer money. Even taking equity stakes in banks is a poisoned chalice if you consider that Wall Street bankers are still awarding themselves <A HREF="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/17/executivesalaries-banking" REL="nofollow">$70 billion in bonuses</A> for 2008.<BR/><BR/>Stieglitz presents a five-point plan for dealing with the crisis. Step one is now being enacted.<BR/><BR/>Step two calls for a reduction in the foreclosure rate to buy time and, to prop up the values of adjacent properties. Negative equity is a strong incentive to default on a mortgage and/or to massively cut back on discretionary spending. This amplifies the foreclosure crisis into a full-blow recession. One possible mechanism Stieglitz does not discuss is foreclose-to-rent, which allows tenants to remain in their homes while banks to generate at least some cashflow from their assets.<BR/><BR/>Step three echoes other economists like Michel Roubini: a massive federal public works program in infrastructure and new technology, intended to limit spending cuts at the state and local levels in response to declining tax revenue. Of course, construction jobs will allow workers in that industry to keep paying their mortgage or rent (see step 2).<BR/><BR/>California's high speed rail projects (prop 1A) is ideally suited to capture a slice of a federal deficit spending package, which is looking more likely with every passing day. It deserves to pass, for this and the many other reasons that have been discussed on this blog and elsewhere in recent months.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-43373702799839239152008-10-17T18:04:00.000-07:002008-10-17T18:04:00.000-07:00nikko pigman said... When one fears defeat, cry...nikko pigman said...<BR/><BR/> When one fears defeat, cry "communist!".<BR/><BR/>Well I would think the observation from the San Jose Mercury article that in 1994, during a financial crisis much less intense than this one, all the bond propositions went down to defeat. those weren't nearly as controversial as Prop 1A and much smaller in size.<BR/><BR/>I certainly at this stage, in opposition to Prop 1A, do not fear defeat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-42358464576399834062008-10-17T16:14:00.000-07:002008-10-17T16:14:00.000-07:00When one fears defeat, cry "communist!".This is an...When one fears defeat, cry "communist!".<BR/><BR/>This is an article on Keynesian Economics. Keynes was a US banker who argued for deficit spending to restart the economic sector (in this case referring to loaning money to the ruined European economy after WW1). He argued that it would ultimately circulate back and help the US in the long run.<BR/><BR/>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economicsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-35755196280992159052008-10-17T14:35:00.000-07:002008-10-17T14:35:00.000-07:00An aside: Almost every day, a new article comes o...An aside: Almost every day, a new article comes out in some California newspaper about HSR/Prop 1A. For example, SJ Mercury just published a (fairly positive) article on Prop 1A. Each time a newspaper publishes an article, that is an opportunity to write a letter. Rather than spending all of our time on this blog, I would submit that each Prop 1A supporter should write one letter per day to a newspaper with positive, on-point comments regarding HSR.<BR/><BR/>That's what I have started doing, and if we all do it, hopefully one of the letters will get selected. Remember, shorter is better. If you can make your point in 150 words or less, the chance that they will run the letter is much better.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-59132671136113860122008-10-17T14:30:00.000-07:002008-10-17T14:30:00.000-07:00The other advantage to building during a slump is,...The other advantage to building during a slump is, of course, that prices are low. There's a ton of excess capacity in the construction industry now, prices of key commodities have fallen considerably and are likely to continue to do so, and land costs, well, obviously those are much lower now than a couple years ago. So not only do you get crucial economic stimulus, but the taxpayers get a much better deal than trying to build the system during an economic boom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-73838979632612538552008-10-17T14:12:00.000-07:002008-10-17T14:12:00.000-07:00In all this discussion of debt, let's not forget t...In all this discussion of debt, let's not forget that prop 1A bonds will not all be sold into the current mother of all bear markets. In fact, only a small fraction would be offered fairly quickly to support existing railroads and project-level EIR/S work by CHSRA.<BR/><BR/>The HSR project would <I>not</I> add $647 million in debt service load onto the 2010 budget. Instead, the burden would ramp up over the course of a full decade. Not only <I>can</I> California afford HSR, it should do so to help reduce the severity of the coming recession.<BR/><BR/>Only after the economy begins to recover should legislators start cutting services (e.g. shorter prison sentences) and/or raise taxes (e.g. on gasoline) to really balance the budget. That trade-off will be painful to make, but because of the credit crisis, right now is not the time to do so.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-90261668673125299072008-10-17T12:40:00.000-07:002008-10-17T12:40:00.000-07:00Translation: capital markets WANT state bonds.Snig...<I>Translation: capital markets WANT state bonds.</I><BR/><BR/>Snigger. Really, I try to stay respectful but the capital markets just warned California about encumbering additional debt. What about that explicit, rare and ominous warning is in your opinion an encouragement? <BR/><BR/>Have you seen CUP, RAN and GO bond spreads lately? THey also make it unambiguously clear that the market appetite for California debt has soured. <BR/><BR/>I am not attacking CAHSR nor even the ultimate wisdom of using debt to finance CAHSR. I am calling you out on your assertion that new debt would be treated favorably.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-17977505454355335602008-10-17T12:28:00.000-07:002008-10-17T12:28:00.000-07:00LOL the trolls are getting restless. They can't a...LOL the trolls are getting restless. They can't argue the point so they just result to the Blue and Yellow scare (Sweden, not CAL). I don't even think they know what socialist means. Not to mention that the whole highway system is socialist.Pantograph Trolleypolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17833159138533550544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-82757772163048655432008-10-17T12:23:00.000-07:002008-10-17T12:23:00.000-07:00Gee, I thought it was he republicans sounding like...Gee, I thought it was he republicans sounding like socialists... with the $700 billion rescue plan and soon-to-be-efforts to begin buying banks.<BR/><BR/>I, for one, see the value in government spending. The economy relies on goverenment spending for about 1/3rd of our country's growth. With private sector economic activity slowing, federal and stateefforts are needed to keep things going.Brandon in Californiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14796810137823230737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-28193180910682284062008-10-17T11:19:00.000-07:002008-10-17T11:19:00.000-07:00So are you saying that Paul Krugman, Lawrence Summ...So are you saying that Paul Krugman, Lawrence Summers, Nouriel Roubini, the Fresno Bee, the SF Chronicle, the LA Times, conservative columnists like Sam Brittan and deficit-hawks like Maya MacGuineas are all socialists?<BR/><BR/>Hoover would be proud of you.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-19976023928809658412008-10-17T11:09:00.000-07:002008-10-17T11:09:00.000-07:00Why don't you just come out and admit you're a soc...Why don't you just come out and admit you're a socialist?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com