tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post4779581264891029247..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: Ryan Avent Demolishes Ed Glaeser's Attack on HSRRobert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger101125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-235393945383234782009-08-09T22:26:40.533-07:002009-08-09T22:26:40.533-07:00I asked how many trips begin in Tokyo and end in S...<i>I asked how many trips begin in Tokyo and end in Sendai. Page 24 shows only the number of riders between Tokyo and Sendai. It doesn't tell us the number of trips that begin and end in that city-pair.</i><br /><br />Yes, it does. It gives the total number of riders between those cities, in order to accurately compare it with the size of the air market. There aren't just 9 million people on trains that go as far as Sendai - the total ridership on just the Tohoku line is 84 million.<br /><br />Now stop pretending not to understand.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-77955758428493310042009-08-09T19:41:42.976-07:002009-08-09T19:41:42.976-07:00Anonymous said...
"But the larger problem is ...Anonymous said...<br />"<i>But the larger problem is that you cannot make meaningful estimates of ridership on a proposed HSR line in the U.S. simply by looking at ridership on a line of comparable length in Japan.</i>"<br /><br />Then do as Glaeser did, and do it back of the envelope based on total flight passengers between the two cities ... but do a more plausible back of the envelope than "all of the air traffic and none of the car traffic".<br /><br />At 1.5 hrs, the train should capture 70% or more of the air traffic. And the captured air traffic won't be the majority of the traffic, taking auto traffic and induced trips. So, 70%/50%=140% of air traffic would be conservative, or 2.1m.<br /><br />For a three hour Emerging HSR service, that should capture 40% of air traffic, and again to be conservative under half of total passengers, so 40%/50%=80% of air traffic, or 1.2m.<br /><br />The cost of the Emerging HSR service, assuming new capacity is required and not just signalling and crossing upgrades, would be ~$80m-$90m/year, on Glaeser's discount rate, (which is high and inflates the capital costing). With Zero Population Growth, as Glaeser assumes, and if existing capacity suffices to the existing market, then net passenger benefits of $75/passenger would suffice to cover the construction costs, and all the third party benefits simply boost the payoff.<br /><br />If population growth in Houston and Dallas do <i>not</i> come to a grinding halt, and, say, $65m/year would be needed for capital costs of air and road transport infrastructure if the rail line is not built, that leaves a net capital cost of ~$25m, and $21/passenger net benefit would cover the net public capital cost, again with all third party benefits just increasing the total net benefit.<br /><br />Without substantial congestion on the existing transport infrastructure, and without a capital cost conserving approach to Express HSR (such as the Texas T-Bone, which would have lower capital cost per passenger than Glaeser's imaginary system), an Express HSR corridor is tenuous.<br /><br />By contrast it seems likely that detailed planning on an Emerging or Regional HSR corridor could yield a slam dunk.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-27563970312885522132009-08-08T17:56:23.818-07:002009-08-08T17:56:23.818-07:00Anon
Sorry I am not Alon Levy, but at least I can...Anon<br /><br />Sorry I am not Alon Levy, but at least I can help to answer some of the questions you have. <br /><br />"I asked how many trips begin in Tokyo and end in Sendai. "<br /><br />Number of Train that starts at Tokyo Station and stop in Sendai station is 1-2 per hour. However, half of the train that stops at Sendai Station has either Akita, Morioka, or Hachinohe (all north of sendai) as final destination. After adding those trains, the frequency of train are following, on weekdays:<br /><br />Sendai > Tokyo 2-4/hr<br />Tokyo > Sendai 2-4/hr<br /><br />http://www.shinkansen.co.jp/jikoku_hyo/en/<br /><br />("jikoku_hyo" is timetable in japanese) <br /><br />BTW, more detailed or more technical the data gets, it would be difficult to collect Japanese HSR information on the web in California or in US. The reasons are:<br /><br />-Official information (press release, technical papers) available only in Japanese<br />-Information not posted on the web, only available in published documents (again, mostly written only in Japanese)<br />-technical information available on web, but only accessible to the members of Japanese engineering societiesK.T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-87207303744761208592009-08-08T16:22:06.334-07:002009-08-08T16:22:06.334-07:00Alon Levy,
It's page 26 out of 106. The name...Alon Levy, <br /><br /><i>It's page 26 out of 106. The name for this page is "24" - it's a distinction between PDF page numbering and the page number on the printed document.</i><br /><br />Huh? Each page in the document is numbered. The page numbered 26 does not have the information you claimed it has. You apparently meant page 24. But page 24 doesn't answer my question either. I asked how many trips begin in Tokyo and end in Sendai. Page 24 shows only the number of riders between Tokyo and Sendai. It doesn't tell us the number of trips that begin and end in that city-pair. Tokyo and Sendai are both major hubs of the JR network. Tokyo is the primary hub of the entire system. The vast majority of travellers boarding the line at Tokyo and getting off at Sendai, or vice versa, will be connecting to other lines in the network to reach their final destination. A more meaningful comparison to Dalllas-Houston would be Tokyo-Niigata or Tokyo-Yamagata. Neither Niigata nor Yamagata is a major hub. Ridership for Tokyo-Niigata is only 4.9 million, and ridership for Tokyo-Yamagata is only 2.5 million.<br /><br />But the larger problem is that you cannot make meaningful estimates of ridership on a proposed HSR line in the U.S. simply by looking at ridership on a line of comparable length in Japan. Not only are population sizes different, but also population densities, which affects the potential market size within a given distance of the stations, mass transit connections to the stations, which also influences the accessibility of the stations to the potential market, the availability and relative cost of air and road competitors, historical circumstances, and many other factors.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-66736100057699803232009-08-08T10:26:30.349-07:002009-08-08T10:26:30.349-07:00I wonder if there shouldnt be an hsr station on th...I wonder if there shouldnt be an hsr station on the eastern waterfront since that is were all the growth will be located including biotech, the new ucsf campus, and I think a new cancer hosptial and childrens hospital.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-45815565293775252812009-08-08T10:24:13.510-07:002009-08-08T10:24:13.510-07:00Any new population will be directed to these locat...Any new population will be directed to these locations. <a href="http://www.sfgov.org/site/planning_index.asp?id=66268" rel="nofollow">easternneighborhoods</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.sfgov.org/site/planning_index.asp?id=74983" rel="nofollow">indiabasin</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.sfgov.org/site/uploadedfiles/sfra/Projects/Map%20BVHPProjectArea2006finalWeb(1).pdf" rel="nofollow">hunterspoint</a><br /><br />These are major projects that will change a huge swath of the city and each of these areas has strong community input groups and the commission in each case is bending to the will of the current residents and business. as they should.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-77026251894901629252009-08-08T10:11:24.002-07:002009-08-08T10:11:24.002-07:00no more new people. enough...
ok actually they ar...no more new people. enough...<br /><br />ok actually they are planning to put most of the new people in the following places.<br /><br />TBT district/Rincon Hill - towers for the wealthy<br />Fourth street from Market to Townsend - central subway corridor - mid rise corridor.<br /><br />Third from Caltrain to Candlestick.- low rise medium density with pockets of single family omes ( india basin)<br /><br />That's why the t-thrid central subway project is going in. But those areas are currently places that have room.<br />I will tell you though that I watched an hour or so of sfgtv planning commision last night and the neighborhood groups in all the micro neighborhoods along third - from dogpatch to Hunters point, including india basin and bayview - they are all already hard at work giving the various develpment plans the fine tooth comb assessment. And the final version of the projects will wind up getting the san francisco treatment. do you know there is an association for the india basin neighborhood. I didn't even know anyone lived there! ( I don't go to that part of town) They are busy ripping the plans to shreds and re doing them. and they have a planning commision who is sympathetic to residents and supportive of the reduced height limits, open space requirements, view corridor retention and on and on. <br /><br />As for the other 80 percent of sf neighborhoods they are built out with the exception of infill.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-16073435113034363672009-08-08T08:16:06.843-07:002009-08-08T08:16:06.843-07:00Combine that with the additional 150,000 people th...<i>Combine that with the additional 150,000 people the city added in the last 10 years and there's the problem.</i><br /><br />Jim, San Francisco's population is barely higher than what it was in 1950. The city depopulated from 1950 to 1980, and has taken this long to recover to its population peak.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-38364179050597736822009-08-08T03:38:49.274-07:002009-08-08T03:38:49.274-07:00Its interrelating blog with great information
tha...Its interrelating blog with great information <br />thanks <br /><br /><br />___________________<br />victor<br /><a href="http://www.paydayloancashonline.com/" rel="nofollow">Cash in your hand in 24Hours with payday loan</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-20239596103532139972009-08-08T00:03:31.569-07:002009-08-08T00:03:31.569-07:00not to mention if you want to raise your child in ...not to mention if you want to raise your child in the neighborhood you'd better join the neighborhood assoc. and make sure you keep the place clean and crime free and not over run with criminals and thugs and bird flu and stuff. You want that nice big park out there to stay nice for your kids don't you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-38328673299687000712009-08-07T23:57:36.503-07:002009-08-07T23:57:36.503-07:00okay well see there have been improvements. Back ...okay well see there have been improvements. Back in the day we would never have dreamed of needing next bus. especially since on most of geary you can see all the way to sutro heights.<br /><br />You ahv eto understand, that in the time I have lived here, this has gone from being a town where people had a very laissez faire attitude towards life and all the city's quirks and downsides, were taken with a grain of salt and a sense of humor, to a place where things have become overly frantic, overly busy, overly bitchy, and overly cynical and divided.<br />No one around here seems to be happy about just being lucky enough to be one of the chosen few to live here. all i ever here is how horrible this city is and Im sick of it. I blame a spoiled younger generation with a short attention span. and the biggest scourge was that dot com boom. it devasted this city to a point and the city hasn't been the same ever since. we can't survive another one of those. It must be stopped.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-3483541670414918522009-08-07T23:50:10.981-07:002009-08-07T23:50:10.981-07:00Jim, I work from home and don't need or expect...Jim, I work from home and don't need or expect any express service anywhere. My wife takes the Genentech shuttle to work. We both just use Muni to get around for other things (no car).<br /><br />However, I want the 38 to be useful to the average person living on the line for getting anywhere - work, play, whatever, which ends up benefiting me as well. I simply care about public transit getting better, not worse, as Muni's downward spiral seems to be doing. <br /><br />You're right that you can use Nextbus to see when the next bus is coming, but how long will it take once you get on the bus? 10 minutes? 20 minutes? 30 minutes? Reliability increases the number of people that will/can/want to rely on Muni for everyday travel. I know that you don't care how long the bus takes once you're on it, but most people do. Not because they're "in a hurry," but because they like to be able to schedule their lives. Having no control over their schedule is a HUGE turnoff, even if they don't absolutely have to be somewhere at a specific time. If more and more people decide that Muni isn't reliable enough, that will hurt your use of Muni as well, as fares rise and service levels continue to fall.<br /><br />On your last question - I've got a baby on the way due in three months, so not as much Friday night partying as in the past ;)Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-84987042730463364852009-08-07T23:31:38.235-07:002009-08-07T23:31:38.235-07:00you know i take the 38 out to laurel heights and ...you know i take the 38 out to laurel heights and it really does seem to work just fine. I simply do not see what the problem is. I never wait more than a few minutes for a bus. The nextbus tells me how long it will be and it takes 15 minutes to get back down to Polk where I walk down to market. What is the prob? do you want an express from your stop to montgomery street?<br /><br />The only thing unpleasant about the trip are the people on the bus. In fact the biggest hold up is people on the bus who refuse to grasp the "move the hell back" concept. Thats not muni's fault, unless you expect the drivers to start tasering folks to get them to follow the rules.<br /><br />and shouldn't someone your age be out drinking and getting laid on a friday night instead of worrying about bus schedules.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-38374523693363320082009-08-07T23:11:40.565-07:002009-08-07T23:11:40.565-07:00Jim, those are all capital improvements in your li...Jim, those are all capital improvements in your link. Important, sure, but operational improvements are what are more urgently needed at Muni, but never seem to happen.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-87683619123794509402009-08-07T23:08:39.036-07:002009-08-07T23:08:39.036-07:00Jim, how many collisions has Muni had in the past ...Jim, how many collisions has Muni had in the past month? I've been patient since the Muni meltdown in the '90s through the disastrous opening of the T. Patience is running thin these days.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-28411163783781565512009-08-07T22:29:02.490-07:002009-08-07T22:29:02.490-07:00here Sam. improvements galore for your tax dolla...here Sam. improvements <a href="http://www.sfcta.org/content/view/37/70/" rel="nofollow">galore</a> for your tax dollar. Its all being taken care of. be patient.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-79002387968118625862009-08-07T22:23:52.501-07:002009-08-07T22:23:52.501-07:00ok well, you're getting your TEP. so there y...ok well, you're getting your TEP. so there you go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-91460580136297993252009-08-07T22:02:56.169-07:002009-08-07T22:02:56.169-07:00You aren't spending any money on muni other th...<i>You aren't spending any money on muni other than your fast pass. please. and what do you want for 55 bucks.</i><br /><br />Jim, we all pay taxes. I would care even if I wasn't paying anything more than for my Fast Pass. Wasting society's money for no good reason will always make me angry, because of the good that it could do.<br /><br />And no, I'm not from NYC. I already mentioned in this thread that I've lived in the Bay Area my whole life - 31 years (Oakland, Berkeley, SF). <br /><br />It's pretty clear that you haven't been to other places that have decent transit (and pay less for it overall) if you think that Muni is anything but deplorable. A bus stop on every block is not a sign of a good transit system - it's a sign of a LAZY transit system at best.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-26597120879348549662009-08-07T21:40:48.228-07:002009-08-07T21:40:48.228-07:00I spoke with a gal whos involved with city (FRESNO...I spoke with a gal whos involved with city (FRESNO)development.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-21996407925708202162009-08-07T21:39:34.790-07:002009-08-07T21:39:34.790-07:00I strongly support hsr and even passed out flyers ...I strongly support hsr and even passed out flyers at work and keep info posted there as well. In spite of some of the drawbacks it will bring. I'm not unreasonable like the peninsula nimbys. So long as the effects are in a contained area. Which they will be. In fact the hsr will make it easier for people to live outside the city and hopefully take some of the pressure off the neighborhoods. I'm hoping like hell that Fresno will get on the ball and maximize its downtown potential and draw people there with the promise of easy access, affordable living, toasty summers by the pool, plus their museums. staduim, symphony and other arts. I spoke with a gal whos involved with city development. They are trying like hell to plan around HSR but can't get a handle on when its gonna happen. Sounds like they losing faith thanks to the peninsula hold up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-91995906908987391302009-08-07T21:33:00.317-07:002009-08-07T21:33:00.317-07:00keep pushing that growth and density nonsense on S...keep pushing that growth and density nonsense on SF and we'll all being rents like <a href="http://newyork.craigslist.org/mnh/aap/" rel="nofollow"> this</a><br /><br />no thanks. if you like that. go there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-17628870724817210492009-08-07T21:28:08.707-07:002009-08-07T21:28:08.707-07:00I will always be proud the city voted 74% YES onPr...I will always be proud the city voted 74% YES onProp1A !! by far the largest percentage ..and to think the nimbys want to stop HSR from coming up to the city from San Jose!!YESonHSRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-20486843124461633252009-08-07T21:26:55.228-07:002009-08-07T21:26:55.228-07:00You aren't spending any money on muni other th...You aren't spending any money on muni other than your fast pass. please. and what do you want for 55 bucks.<br /><br />You are just in too much of a rush. Ill bet you're from new york.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-2774264244421563042009-08-07T21:08:12.484-07:002009-08-07T21:08:12.484-07:00Jim,
$800 million dollars. That's how much M...Jim,<br /><br />$800 million dollars. That's how much Muni operations will cost this year. You're damn right that I'm going to question new projects and complain about bad service when we're doling out that kind of dough. It has nothing to do with me "being in a hurry." Would you expect me to "just grin and bear it" if an airline was constantly giving me bad service? No, you'd expect me to use a different airline. We don't have that choice with Muni, so our only option is to complain, question, advocate, etc for change.<br /><br />This has nothing to do with "outsiders." Muni is an <i>embarrassment</i> to San Francisco, one of the great cities of the world.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-62148523042459879292009-08-07T20:36:41.416-07:002009-08-07T20:36:41.416-07:00well obviously enough were against it to stop t...well obviously enough were against it to stop the subway.<br /><br />I think there should be a geary subway. But ill settle for brt.<br /><br />At the same time, may outsiders and newcomers are complaining about the central subway. When the central subway makes a ton of sense for reasons I won't get into. The city has just been over run with people for whom nothing is good enough. i mean if it takes you too long to get from the avenues then don't move to the avenues. Of move to the avenues and deal with it.<br /><br />As far as im concerned, people who are always in a big rush are people who aren't managing their life very well.<br />Its like me leaving three minutes too late for work and then getting mad that "muni made me late" because I missed the 203 and had to wait for the 210. Its not munis fault there's a 7 minute gap. I know better. And that's what's happening with people they want muni to be their personal on call limo. and in what other city can you be 3 blocks from a muni line no matter where you are. No one has the kind of coverage we do. and these "hurry up" people are the ones who are advocating cutting that coverage in favor of getting them downtown faster. Like its all about them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com