tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post6443286071635680678..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: November CHSRA Board MeetingRobert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger137125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-7952404758464815712009-11-07T21:01:11.498-08:002009-11-07T21:01:11.498-08:00@ anon @ 12:12pm -
FYI, France split the infrastr...@ anon @ 12:12pm -<br /><br />FYI, France split the infrastructure ownership from train operations not to hide the salami but because there's an EU directive (=law) requiring all national railways of all member states to do just that.<br /><br />Beginning in 2010, both freight and passenger operators will then be permitted to negotiate for trackage rights in any member state and run trains across borders and within other states.<br /><br />In other words, this is about market liberalization. The EU expects that cross-border rail freight volume will pick up substantially in the coming decades, especially intermodal freight. This will reduce the need to expand the motorway network, reduce dependence on imported oil, reduce CO2 emissions and also increase revenue for the rail infrastructure owners.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-48367009515907353942009-11-07T14:48:06.498-08:002009-11-07T14:48:06.498-08:00Barron's estimate includes depreciation and in...Barron's estimate includes depreciation and interest. Basically, what he's saying is that most HSR lines haven't paid off their construction debt. This is true (except that the Sanyo Shinkansen did pay off its debt, according to Perl), in the sense that the Tohoku and Joetsu Shinkansen had their debt wiped, and the other HSR lines are still in the process of paying off the debt. Those lines are all profitable after depreciation and taxes, but some are still burdened by interest, like the subprime-interest line in Taiwan, and others have profits that subsidize commuter rail expansion rather than debt service, as in France.<br /><br />For total costs, see what Barron has calculated in his <a href="http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12396/1/MPRA_paper_12396.pdf" rel="nofollow">paper about HSR costs</a>. The paper concludes that for a 500-km line running 250 km/h trains with 5 million passengers in the first year, total costs, including construction and operations, should be €13 billion, whereas with ticket prices of €50 revenues would be closer to €17.7 billion. In other words, the profit margin should be close to 1/3 before interest.<br /><br />For reference: using the SNCF-projected ridership for California, the starter line would carry about 1.7 billion passengers in its lifetime, so at average ticket prices of $50, it would net $85 billion in revenue.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-67092823805485086682009-11-07T14:06:12.956-08:002009-11-07T14:06:12.956-08:00Try this obvious link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009...Try this obvious link:<br /><i>http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/30/business/energy-environment/30trains.html?_r=1&scp=8&sq=high-speed%20rail&st=cse</i><br /><br /><i>Such benefits, however, come with a huge price tag. By 2020, Spain plans to spend close to 100 billion euros on infrastructure and billions more on trains. That figure could give pause to places like California, a potential high-speed corridor whose area and population are about four-fifths the size of Spain’s.<br /><br />“High-speed rail is good for society and it’s good for the environment, but it’s not a profitable business,” said Mr. Barrón of the International Union of Railways. He reckons that only two routes in the world — between Tokyo and Osaka, and between Paris and Lyon, France — have broken even.</i><br /><br />It's not Wendell Cox; it's the HSR director of the International Union of Railways!<br /><br />Do we honestly think California can spend less on its HSR system than Spain?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-63831491089167613692009-11-07T12:43:41.367-08:002009-11-07T12:43:41.367-08:00On another note, SNCF didn't build beet-field ...On another note, SNCF didn't build beet-field stations because they're the best, but because they were a compromise given the circumstances. So the statement that,<br /><br /><i>The Paris-Lyon TGV was designed well by specifically avoiding built-up areas with stations at the edge of cities. Note that this is a distinctly different design from the expensive CHSRA proposal that seeks out all the grade separations and tunnels it can find.</i><br /><br />is incorrect. Unlike California, France has no straight legacy rail rights of way, so the LGVs have to leverage highways, which don't go into central cities.<br /><br />Tellingly, SNCF's proposals for building HSR in the US do emphasize city center stops. In California, SNCF has endorsed the preferred route. In the Midwest and Texas, where there is a mix of straight highway and rail rights of way, the SNCF proposals have mainly city center stops even in the middle of the lines, with only a few edge-of-urban-area stops.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-35079749386823506352009-11-07T12:37:38.417-08:002009-11-07T12:37:38.417-08:00The Paris-Lyon passenger route was heavily used ev...<i>The Paris-Lyon passenger route was heavily used even before TGV, and with TGV, it probably breaks even on that leg (one of two HSR routes in the world to do so).</i><br /><br />Can you find me a link, from any reputable source, stating that only two HSR lines make a profit?<br /><br />I can give you references, e.g. Anthony Perl's book New Departures and the GAO's "HSR is too expensive" document, that state that not only do all HSR lines in the world make an operating profit, but also the oldest three - the LGV Sud-Est and the Tokaido and Sanyo Shinkansen - have fully paid off their construction debt. I can also give you references to corporate statements by JR-East, JR-Central, and JR-West, showing they are profitable after depreciation and interest, which suggests that the newer Shinkansen lines are on track to generate enough profits to pay off the debt. In fact, JR-Central is so profitable with its Shinkansen money that it can afford to sink $44 billion into a maglev line, which the Japanese government refused to fund.<br /><br />Similarly, I know Andre has references stating that the LGV Sud-Est makes a 25% profit, rather than just breaks even. And far from being subsidized, the intercity division of SNCF, i.e. the service equivalent of Amtrak as opposed to Caltrain and Metrolink, is overall profitable, even after depreciation.<br /><br />As far as I can tell, the only source for the "two HSR lines in the world break even" claim is an article by Wendell Cox, whose knowledge about public transportation wouldn't fill the back of a matchbox.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-66033995165207834522009-11-07T12:13:39.701-08:002009-11-07T12:13:39.701-08:00@ jim
If the highway lobby had had its way the Em...@ jim<br /><br />If the highway lobby had had its way the Embarcadero Freeway would have been rebuilt and the Central Freeway would still be there.<br /><br />Along with the Panhandle Freeway and the Marina Freeway, etc., etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-55259331744287741272009-11-07T12:12:19.101-08:002009-11-07T12:12:19.101-08:00RFF is basically a financial entity designed to ho...RFF is basically a financial entity designed to hold all of SNCF's enormous debt, which the French state is responsible for. SNCF can report an operating profit, while RFF absorbs the debt to be paid by the taxpayer. RFF is split off from SNCF to be responsible for track maintenance, yet it subcontracts the actual track maintenance back to SNCF. How odd! It's a shell game masquerade built by the French rail "professionals" intentionally trying to hide the steep losses.<br /><br />The beet-field stations are what keep the HSR capital costs reasonable. The Paris-Lyon passenger route was heavily used even before TGV, and with TGV, it probably breaks even on that leg (one of two HSR routes in the world to do so). The Paris-Lyon TGV was designed well by specifically avoiding built-up areas with stations at the edge of cities. Note that this is a distinctly different design from the expensive CHSRA proposal that seeks out all the grade separations and tunnels it can find. <br /><br />SNCF is a rail system, not just a HSR specialist. HSR is a form of premium rail infrastructure with high capital costs, but it must be considered as part of a larger system. It's like saying American Airlines' profitability is based on its New York-Chicago route, while disregarding losses made on the Chicago-Cleveland and Cleveland-New York routes and even all the feeder services.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-46365161580144520652009-11-07T11:35:19.925-08:002009-11-07T11:35:19.925-08:00The SNCF/RFF shell game
That's why I took the ...<i>The SNCF/RFF shell game</i><br />That's why I took the example of Paris-Lyon for which capital costs were paid by the SNCF. With the creation of RFF as the track owner, profits and losses have become very difficult to analyse for non-professionals.<br /><br />The creation of RFF was decided for two main reasons:<br />1) Permitting other companies (DB, RENFE, Veolia, etc) to use the tracks,<br />2) Giving the state the last word when choosing the routes for future lines. <br />This is now possible because RFF is state-run, contrary to the SNCF where the state only has a minority (7/18) representation. It probably spells the end of beet-field stations, since the state now has the power to say NO. <br />The downside is that this duality inflates costs and delays necessary investments. A lot of time is wasted determining who will pay for what. When in doubt, decision is delayed.<br />As RFF has no engineering of its own, it subcontracts track maintenance to the SNCF, thus offering it a possibility to recover most of the toll it pays to RFF. <br />In short, the SNCF does what it has always done, except that now a lot of time and money is wasted in bureaucracy and conflict management.<br />The French government should have known: if it ain't broke, don't fix it.Andre Perettinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-32874250139134677202009-11-07T10:54:24.808-08:002009-11-07T10:54:24.808-08:00@adirondacker: they might never need six platform
...@adirondacker: they might never need six platform<br />tracks. Especially with through tracks headed down to a maintenance yard. But there's six platform tracks on the ground right now, so all I was saying is that it looks like you could fit up to six above those too. Four would be even easier.Andyduncannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-84861462012887812742009-11-07T10:23:22.086-08:002009-11-07T10:23:22.086-08:00and californians don't have a problem with the...and californians don't have a problem with the so called highway lobby either. californians are forever clamoring for more highway capacity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-52992412882515985912009-11-07T10:22:08.243-08:002009-11-07T10:22:08.243-08:00. Overall, with a highly polished, professional pr...<i>. Overall, with a highly polished, professional pr blitz the CHSRA will emerge as the new formidable partner-in-arms of the highway lobby. Big government on the order of the military-industrial complex</i><br /><br />huh? you're off the reservation now. If you remember, californians voted to build high speed rail. And pumping money into californias economy right now is what people want, be it hsr, defense spending, or any other kind of stimulus.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-4579906983178202012009-11-07T10:07:23.842-08:002009-11-07T10:07:23.842-08:00Siccing pr hacks on the Palo Alto-Menlo Park oppos...Siccing pr hacks on the Palo Alto-Menlo Park opposition to the hsr berm is a risky strategy.<br /><br />1. It will entail a high-profile presentation. All sorts of grandiose promises will have to be made, promises that will never be lived up to.<br /><br />2. "Environmentalists" who support Kopp and Diridon will be outed as the corporate shills they are. The real locals will be free to take a much more radical position, which is a much more effective starting point for bargaining.<br /><br />3. Overall, with a highly polished, professional pr blitz the CHSRA will emerge as the new formidable partner-in-arms of the highway lobby. Big government on the order of the military-industrial complex. In the process it will become the chief target, the bete noire of the resurgent Howard Jarvis, anti-tax-and-spend movement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-10374769015042551682009-11-07T00:39:52.129-08:002009-11-07T00:39:52.129-08:00Squeezing in six platform tracks above the current...<em>Squeezing in six platform tracks above the current station would be tight, and might have to use a staggered layout to avoid demolishing some high-rises, but it should be doable.</em><br /><br />Why would they need 6 platforms in San Diego? If they <em>ever</em> get up to 6 trains per hour in each direction that would mean a train could wander in to platform 1 at 7:00 and not have to wander back out until 8:00. The next one on to track two at 7;10 and not have to leave until 8:10. 12 per hour in each direction would mean a 30 minute dwell. 4 platforms is probably adequate for the next century or so. <br /><br /><em>it would be possible to have a "virtual" station in San Diego, with two platform tracks at the Santa Fe Depot and another two at Lindbergh Field. Trains would stop only at one or the other. A single station would be less confusing, though.</em><br /><br />They why do all the HSR trains have to go to Transbay? Half of them could stop at 4th and half could skip 4th to only serve Transbay. . . Halves the frequency to either station too assuming they build both. Though with an astounding 4 or 5 trains a hour in each direction there's no way they could have all trains serve both two platform stations..... <br /><br /><em>though this would probably interfere with long-term plans to move the terminal facilities to that side of the airport.</em><br /><br />Put the terminal over the HSR station and the parking lots over the storage yard..... <br /><br /><em>Say that leaves at 6:00am. It would arrive in San Diego at around 10:15am and need 30min cleaning before it can be sent on its merry way again.</em><br /><br />So the first departure from Los Angeles to San Diego is going to be around 8, assuming it's originated in San Francisco at 5? I don't think so. They would have to run a very very empty train between San Francisco and Bakersfield to do that and then the train would be very very crowded south of Los Angeles. The people who have to be in San Diego before 9 would be really pissed too.. and driving there....Adirondacker12800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-56797541308036895722009-11-06T22:52:57.166-08:002009-11-06T22:52:57.166-08:00Anon, the link you give is so abusive it never bot...Anon, the link you give is so abusive it never bothers to distinguish SNCF's intercity operations, which are profitable, from its commuter operations, which are subsidized by local governments.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-68769445121156048442009-11-06T21:56:43.000-08:002009-11-06T21:56:43.000-08:00Does anyone have any data for just the TGV revenue...Does anyone have any data for <i>just</i> the TGV revenue/expenditure, or similar data for any other HSR system (i.e. Shinkansen, AVE)?Joeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16406340564037825796noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-19580916613958155912009-11-06T21:46:32.659-08:002009-11-06T21:46:32.659-08:00Still failing to make the distinction between prof...Still failing to make the distinction between profitable HSR and subsidized conventional rail, are we, anon? The TGV isn't SNCF's only operation, you know.Joeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16406340564037825796noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-87522809932279035592009-11-06T20:24:45.605-08:002009-11-06T20:24:45.605-08:00To get private investment, you have to provide ret...To get private investment, you have to provide returns on capital. The SNCF/RFF shell game has never produced a surplus on capital expenditure and has always required heavy subsidy (almost 1% of France's GDP!). No private investors can be found for California's HSR, because where is the return on capital investment?<br /><br />http://www.transport-watch.co.uk/transport-pdfs/english-01.pdf<br /><br />OK, so HSR requires ongoing subsidies like many other forms of infrastructure, but let's at least be honest about it.<br /><br /><br /><i>To justify subsidy is one thing, to deny it is another. It would be reasonable to attempt to <br />show that public spending on rail is desirable, in the same way as is public spending on <br />education or justice, citing the benefits that the community derives in terms of safety, <br />emissions, or national development. It would be a difficult exercise, particularly because <br />railway users - the beneficiaries of these public expenditures - are mainly the rich so that the <br />expenditures are regressive. Nevertheless the exercise would be legitimate. <br /><br />What is not legitimate is to conceal the facts. As Tartuffe said in Molliere: "Oh, hide this hole <br />from me lest I see it." It seems that for some people the main thing is for the subsidy to be <br />invisible and inaudible - because “it is no sin to sin in silence." The actions of the SNCF and <br />the RFF are perhaps understandable. After all a deficit is not good for morale. On the other <br />hand Institutions that have such a high opinion of themselves are perhaps unable to view the <br />matter in its true light.</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-2164909254985771982009-11-06T15:59:01.766-08:002009-11-06T15:59:01.766-08:00Andre: yes, the LGV Sud-Est was funded by bonds on...Andre: yes, the LGV Sud-Est was funded by bonds on Wall Street (which, I believe, SNCF repaid in full by 1990). I'm pretty sure that if Amtrak decided to go to Wall Street with a decent plan for HSR in the US, it'd get money, too. Even its current business plan, with esoteric ideas like 5" cant deficiency on curvy track and four-tracking legacy lines, might get money.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-66940041988461655192009-11-06T13:04:37.321-08:002009-11-06T13:04:37.321-08:00@Rafael: Hey, I'm with you. Down here in LA we...@Rafael: Hey, I'm with you. Down here in LA we've got a one beelion dollar project to add a <a href="http://www.metro.net/projects_studies/I405/default.htm" rel="nofollow">single carpool lane</a> to the northbound 405 between westwood and the 101.<br /><br />Not even one lane each direction. oh no. one single monodirectional lane.<br /><br />For a billion bucks. You could build half a Bart Extension to Livermore for that...<br /><br />Maybe I'm just bitter because I was cut off three times last night by a prius driver (solo) and two minivans full of children swerving across the 91 to get to the "carpool" lane.<br /><br />Totally worthwhile, those lanes, kept at least a half-dozen 8 year olds from driving themselves to soccer practice.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08878685680339441795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-32556718461155124862009-11-06T12:47:57.159-08:002009-11-06T12:47:57.159-08:00@ Andy Duncan -
so cancel the carpool lane projec...@ Andy Duncan -<br /><br />so cancel the carpool lane project and redirect the associated funds to upgrading ACE.<br /><br />Fight the asphalt lobby!Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-12107495742727430912009-11-06T12:45:36.439-08:002009-11-06T12:45:36.439-08:00@Rafael: the freeway median you can see on google ...@Rafael: the freeway median you can see on google maps is being converted into a <a href="http://cbs5.com/local/HOV.carpool.lane.2.1225622.html" rel="nofollow">carpool lane</a> for the most part, so they would need to widen the freeway by almost the full required ROW width.<br /><br />I'm sad to see that a simple line across the quarry and up the UPRR ROW at grade to a single at-grade downtown station wasn't included as one of the alternatives.<br /><br />The Vasco station would be almost close enough to provide for people travelling to LLNL/Sandia with some sort of shuttle bus, but that's only about 10k people/day, and most of them already live in Livermore. It would also require buying an entire business-park's worth of warehouses, though I still don't see how that gets you to their listed ROW acquisition costs.<br /><br />The Greenville stations would apparently be placed on bart-owned land, which helps with cost, slightly. But they really are in the middle of nowhere. There's nothing out there and they would be entirely dependent on commuters from the valley.<br /><br />An intermodal downtown with ACE seems like a prerequisite to me. Adding another stop to the ACE train at Isabel and stanley is a poor solution.<br /><br />There's no reason to build a subway in Livermore other than NIMBYs, but I have to say the isabel/580 with a subway down portola to an ACE intermodal looks like the best of the given alternatives.<br /><br />The isabel/580 station would be positioned to handle the park/ride and bus-transfers, while the downtown station would handle ACE/HSR transfers and local passengers.<br /><br />Bloody expensive though. I say save the money for a downpayment on a new transbay tube.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08878685680339441795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-9922413045781670412009-11-06T12:24:57.930-08:002009-11-06T12:24:57.930-08:00@ jim -
the reason so many parking spaces are nee...@ jim -<br /><br />the reason so many parking spaces are needed in San Diego is that CHSRA's plans do not include any stabling in LA at all. There are no plans for HSR trains between just LA and SD.<br /><br />Therefore, the first train of the day that could be turned around would be the first one to arrive from <i>San Francisco</i> (or Sacramento). Say that leaves at 6:00am. It would arrive in San Diego at around 10:15am and need 30min cleaning before it can be sent on its merry way again. That means all northbound trains out of San Diego between 6:00am and 10:45am need to rely on trainsets stabled in San Diego.<br /><br />In addition to the scheduled trains, I figured you'd want a couple of spares and and another two might be temporarily unavailable due to light maintenance in San Diego, so I upped the total of required parking spaces from 41 to 45 for belts and suspenders.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-76838708532527789522009-11-06T12:20:03.386-08:002009-11-06T12:20:03.386-08:00the job of building something in california create...the job of building something in california creates jobs for people in california. those jobs can not be outsourced.<br />The guys who build the railroad, will take their lunch breaks at the local diner and put money into the pocket of the waitress who serves them and the local business owner who owns the business as well as providing a paycheck for the construction guy so he can pay his mortgage rather than go into foreclosure so that his neighborhood values can keep from falling. what is the alternative? do nothing and let the state fall into depression and food lines? give away more tax cuts to the wealthy so they can invest in overseas factories, and hide their profits? I think we've already been down that road and you can see where it led. <br />investing billions into california for a project that will provide both immediate and long term returns makes sense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-59889698744782063302009-11-06T12:17:04.420-08:002009-11-06T12:17:04.420-08:00@ Peter -
from the BART to Livermore Draft EIS/EI...@ Peter -<br /><br />from the BART to Livermore Draft EIS/EIR pp7 PDF:<br /><br />"[...] under improvement scenarios <br />for I-580 through 2035, and as described in the regional transportation plan, the freeway median is not <br />sufficiently wide east of the existing terminus to accommodate BART track and/or additional freeway-median stations. BART construction requires a minimum 46-foot width between freeway <br />lanes to allow operation of trains in each travel direction, including allowances for outboard retaining <br />walls where necessary and continuous security fencing."<br /><br />Google Maps' satellite view is admittedly not a precise tool, but it suggests the available width in the I-580 median east of Pleasanton is 38 feet. The width actually used west of Pleasanton is 38 feet. Note sure where the 46 foot requirement comes from, a 14 foot loading gauge plus 10 foot clearance and 2 foot divider on each side equals 38 feet.<br /><br />As for freeway median stations, note that there is no law that says all BART stations shall have island platforms. Just elevate the tracks high enough to permit cantilevered side platforms above the left lanes in each direction and build pedestrian bridges to the side of the freeway and stairs/elevators down to grade level.<br /><br />Not that anyone really wants more stations in that freeway median, mind you. It's just that the Isabel/I-580 is by far the cheapest. Even that five-mile section comes in at a whopping $1120 million ($224 million/mile).<br /><br />From a transportation perspective, the Quarry Rd. option at $1610 million would permit an intermodal transfer station with ACE just west of Stanley/Isabel in Livermore, possibly at the expense of the downtown ACE station.<br /><br />It would be a useful reality check to see how much money ACE would need to press the old SP alignment between Niles and Tracy back into regular commuter service as a second track, with a new connector west of Tracy. Between I-680 and Valley Ave in Pleasanton, the existing active UPRR ROW would be double-tracked instead.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-15371996021434447642009-11-06T12:15:05.198-08:002009-11-06T12:15:05.198-08:00What's good for PBQD and Bechtel is good for C...<i>What's good for PBQD and Bechtel is good for California.</i><br /><br />thats right. providing good jobs and at the same time priming the pump for supporting employment is good for california, especially considering how the other approach of deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy was a miserable failure that got us into the mess we are in today in the first place.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com