tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post8637585616472001440..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: Gas Prices and HSRRobert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-42133908295826436572008-08-12T01:27:00.000-07:002008-08-12T01:27:00.000-07:00Not to get too far off topic, but bikerider's comp...Not to get too far off topic, but bikerider's comparison of the Gold Line to CapMetro is unfair. CapMetro is not electrified, and most of the right of way is single track for low frequency commuter rail service. <BR/><BR/>The Gold Line on the other hand is electrified, double track, and required significant grade separations because the line traverses many congested streets while operating very frequently.Jarrett Mullenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07459396868012776121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-22240120656952254812008-08-12T01:01:00.000-07:002008-08-12T01:01:00.000-07:00I'm a Sacramentan. I'm fine with Sac not being in...I'm a Sacramentan. I'm fine with Sac not being in the first phase. What I'm not fine with is Pacheco Pass. Sac to the bay area via Merced and Gilroy. Great! Oh, but I can get to LA in 2.5 hours? That would be useful if I went to LA more than once every 2 years.<BR/><BR/><I>the 13-mile Phase I -- built along an existing rail line -- cost $60m per mile ($890m total).</I><BR/><BR/>This sounds like a bargain by Bay Area standards!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-47223252110330042902008-08-11T20:08:00.000-07:002008-08-11T20:08:00.000-07:00How are we going to be witnessing lower overall tr...<I>How are we going to be witnessing lower overall transit ridership when the fundamentals I explained in this post show that ridership will continue to grow?</I><BR/><BR/>The decreased transit ridership is well documented. See for example http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BATN/message/37040<BR/><BR/><I>Your assumption that every mass transit project breaks the budget is not supported by the evidence. Seattle's light rail line, opening next year, is on-budget. So too is the Metro Gold Line extension.</I><BR/><BR/>If you are going to cherry-pick LRT examples, you couldn't possibly do worse than these two. Even the drank-the-kool-aid LRT fans at lightrailnow.org acknowledge the cost-overruns with Seattle's project. <BR/><BR/>If you knew the historical background of the Gold Line projects, then you know that any cost "overrun" is a political impossibility for that line. After the red-line fiasco, metro-rail planners were finally honest about the true cost of the Gold Line project, so enormous reserve was built into the projected cost. But this was hardly a good thing: the 13-mile Phase I -- built along an existing rail line -- cost $60m per mile ($890m total). To put that amount in perspective, CapMetro, a very similar project in Austin, cost $60m TOTAL for 32 miles (despite interferance from FRA over vehicle choice).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-20414189529762195162008-08-11T18:12:00.000-07:002008-08-11T18:12:00.000-07:00Robert writes:"I have no problem with Prop 1 as-is...Robert writes:<BR/><BR/>"I have no problem with Prop 1 as-is. It's just sad that once again Sacramento lacks leadership on HSR."<BR/><BR/>Nothing wrong with Prop 1? Just the 35 page Lowenthaw report that rips it apart that's all.<BR/><BR/>Sierra club was registered as being opposed to Prop 1. Are they going to change sides now?<BR/><BR/>Put you head in the sand guys.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure AB-3034 is really dead, but if it is, passage of the project just got immensely more difficult.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-16727507029531514722008-08-11T18:05:00.000-07:002008-08-11T18:05:00.000-07:00someguy, glad to hear it. I am sure you're not alo...someguy, glad to hear it. I am sure you're not alone. Menlo Park will remain a wonderful, livable community with HSR.<BR/><BR/>It'll also be cleaner and safer, since the diesel pollution will be gone and the tracks separated from the grade where people can and sometimes are hit by passing trains.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-77839533409384496042008-08-11T17:53:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:53:00.000-07:00Here, here!As a Menlo Parkian, I support Prop 1 ev...Here, here!<BR/><BR/>As a Menlo Parkian, I support Prop 1 even though it will, according to some; destroy my community, and possibly end civilization as we know it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-72394195516595929852008-08-11T17:44:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:44:00.000-07:00And as a Montereyan, whose lovely beach community ...And as a Montereyan, whose lovely beach community isn't going to get a stop ever, I'm personally OK with that too. ;)Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-43833103375139377992008-08-11T17:36:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:36:00.000-07:00I concur with Tony D. And as a San Diegan... I ha...I concur with Tony D. And as a San Diegan... I have repeatidly commented that I am personally okay with San Diego not being in the first phase.Brandon in Californiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14796810137823230737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-13645002267229466132008-08-11T17:23:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:23:00.000-07:00The polls for Prop 1 are quite good. There's consi...The polls for Prop 1 are quite good. There's consistent support between 54%-58% and in the absence of organized and funded opposition I don't see why that would drop by a whole lot between now and November.<BR/><BR/>I have no problem with Prop 1 as-is. It's just sad that once again Sacramento lacks leadership on HSR.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-46850680507963026122008-08-11T17:21:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:21:00.000-07:00Robert,It looks as if High-Speed rail will go to t...Robert,<BR/>It looks as if High-Speed rail will go to the November ballot as is...Prop.1. And that's fine with me. AB3034 would have been nice, but it's not a totally necessity. Why on Earth do people, especially those in San Diego and Central Valley north of Merced, think that they WON'T get high-speed rail? They will, not just initially. How many times must we tell them that Rome wasn't built in a day. Anyhow, here's something funny out of the North County Times (Southern California): "The measure (Prop.1) hasn't been polling well as it is. According to a recent field poll, just 56% of likely voters planned to vote for it." HUHH?!! Hopefully there are smart voters in the aformentioned regions that realize they won't get HSR unless they approve Prop.1 as currently worded. LA-SF, the rest will follow.Tony D.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03392232221747908883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-20029513224949713122008-08-11T17:20:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:20:00.000-07:00Not quite sure what you're saying, rob. There are ...Not quite sure what you're saying, rob. There are many reasons why HSR is a good idea, and those reasons outweigh the imperfections in Prop 1. I don't see ANYTHING that qualifies as a "danger" - even if there are some cost overruns it'll be cheaper than all the alternatives.<BR/><BR/>The beauty of HSR is that it addresses many needs and issues. I focused on just one of them in this post. As you all know, this blog has given a lot of time to many different reasons for HSR. We surely aren't relying on any one thing or the other.<BR/><BR/>Finally, <A HREF="http://www.deserttelevision.com/Global/story.asp?S=8824245&nav=menu412_2" REL="nofollow">one media outlet is reporting AB 3034 *did* pass the Assembly</A> today, although that's at odds with what I've seen on the Assembly's own site. Sometimes I wish they hadn't moved the state capitol out of Monterey...Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-20233395704628584772008-08-11T17:04:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:04:00.000-07:00The phenomenon of peak oil is what's at work here,...<I>The phenomenon of peak oil is what's at work here, and it helps explain what's going on.</I><BR/><BR/>No, and I can prove it. Answer honestly; if peak oil were proven false would you abandon CAHSR? No? Neither would I for that matter. <BR/><BR/>This is the problem with conclusion driven advocacy. Yes, CAHSR is a very good idea. Yes California will need to invest massive amounts, BFD. That isn't the point. <BR/><BR/>Is Prop 1 the best possible mechanism amended or not? Of course not. Prop 1 has serious flaws. Trying to paint it otherwise is no way to get votes. <BR/><BR/>There is a danger in HSR no matter what the its opponents will attempt to exploit.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-46367307741596774602008-08-11T17:01:00.001-07:002008-08-11T17:01:00.001-07:00Anon @ 4:28pm In the context of Robert's argument ...Anon @ 4:28pm <BR/><BR/>In the context of Robert's argument that we must plan and build infrastructure with the next several generations in mind your comments are patently idiotic!<BR/><BR/>"Hold the phone everyone oil just slipped a little, crisis averted! See, all we had to do was nothing and the problem went away all by itself. That must mean that it will never be a problem ever again...right?"<BR/><BR/>With a sense for the long view like that, you sir should be a politician!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-14707806901877370062008-08-11T17:01:00.000-07:002008-08-11T17:01:00.000-07:00Perhaps members of the Senate Assembly read my pos...Perhaps members of the Senate Assembly read my post from the other day? Or had similar concerns?<BR/><BR/>------<BR/><I>"I am concerned Schwarzenegger will use AB 3034 as an example and not sign it...<BR/><BR/>... citing that the legislature is not acting with urgency on the State budget and ...<BR/><BR/>... instead is sending the wrong message to California citizens and state employees (yes, them) that the State has a 'spending' problem with Prop 1 and the timing of AB 3034 as case-in-point example. <BR/><BR/>The meaning to the population is "why is the legislature acting on THIS, a spending bill and new program, when they should be focused on the budget?"<BR/><BR/>Each of the arguments to de-link the two will be lost on the average Joe Voter.<BR/><BR/>I don't know if this will happen, but the possibility seems to have merit. <BR/><BR/>And, I think the politcal consequence to Arnold if he does sign a bill coming before a budget is passed, especially this, is too great for him ignore. <BR/><BR/>In fact, he may have set up this conflict from the beginning, by stating his claim to not sign any bills coming before him until a budget is passed, anticpated AB 3034 as a possibility.<BR/><BR/>August 10, 2008 2:02 PM"</I>Brandon in Californiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14796810137823230737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-19046867377429293312008-08-11T16:54:00.000-07:002008-08-11T16:54:00.000-07:00That's right, anon. I'm currently trying to get mo...That's right, anon. I'm currently trying to get more details. Pretty weak of them to not meet today.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-1378839337450719342008-08-11T16:28:00.000-07:002008-08-11T16:28:00.000-07:00Over at www.derailhsr.com they have posted that th...Over at <BR/><BR/>www.derailhsr.com <BR/><BR/>they have <A HREF="http://derailhsr.com/main/2008/08/11/ab-3034-assembly-misses-deadline-81108/" REL="nofollow">posted</A> that the State Assembly did not meet today<BR/>and thus did not pass AB-3034Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-69098821416820185192008-08-11T15:24:00.000-07:002008-08-11T15:24:00.000-07:00Way to miss the point of the diary, anon.Way to miss the point of the diary, anon.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-87282548230301658702008-08-11T15:10:00.000-07:002008-08-11T15:10:00.000-07:00@robertBoy am I glad I am not using you to predict...@robert<BR/><BR/>Boy am I glad I am not using you to predict oil prices -- today's news 8/11/08<BR/><BR/>NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices finished at a new three-month low Monday after briefly dropping below $113 a barrel mark, as the dollar extended its rebound and more signs emerged that China's energy demand could be leveling off.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-50828859127146964562008-08-11T14:06:00.000-07:002008-08-11T14:06:00.000-07:00Harry G -You lack effective arguments so you jump ...Harry G -<BR/><BR/>You lack effective arguments so you jump on the only comment that criticizes American infrastructure, then you call into question his patriotism. You also call him 'my friend'. Can I call you McCain?<BR/><BR/>As an American raised in Europe and America I know that having a HSR would makes us even an even better place to live. Why should we not adopt a great piece of technology that serves a public good?<BR/><BR/>Being close minded and short sighted is going to hurt the American economy far more than adopting successful transportation systems.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18434798037034661505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-90211192731205379132008-08-11T09:47:00.000-07:002008-08-11T09:47:00.000-07:00Grow up Harry G. Are you in like 5th grade? "If ...Grow up Harry G. Are you in like 5th grade? <BR/><BR/>"If you love HSR so much why don't you marry it"<BR/><BR/>Ha HA!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-78881363987503595092008-08-11T09:31:00.000-07:002008-08-11T09:31:00.000-07:00af. wrote:"It is ridiculous that the only practica...af. wrote:<BR/>"<BR/>It is ridiculous that the only practical ways to travel around this state are by car or plane. Go to real industrial world nations (in Europe, Japan) to see how they travel."<BR/><BR/>Now you put the US below those nations. Well my friend, you go and live there; I'm quite happy with the quality of live here and certainly don't care to endorse the economies or life styles of those "real industrial world nations"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-19762255543254355172008-08-11T08:39:00.000-07:002008-08-11T08:39:00.000-07:00@ harry g. -you say"What this [HSR] project is all...@ harry g. -<BR/><BR/>you say<BR/><BR/>"What this [HSR] project is all about is really nothing more than a public works project [...]",<BR/><BR/>implying that all public works projects are inherently bad ideas.<BR/><BR/>You also say<BR/><BR/>"HSR should be project that is going to solve a transportation problem.<BR/><BR/>In this case, moving people from LA to SF is what it is supposed to be all about.<BR/><BR/>Well the airlines and highways in this country have already infrastructure to handle this problem."<BR/><BR/>So, the state's airport runways and highways were not public works projects? You're contradicting yourself.<BR/><BR/>Also, no-one ever said the HSR project was <I>only</I> about moving people between SF and LA. There's a lot of California in-between and, a subset of HSR trains will stop there. In addition to the endpoints of the route, high speed trains will serve inland communities whose medium-distance mobility needs are in fact poorly served by both airlines and cars.<BR/><BR/>Finally, transportation is a critical sector of the economy that is closely tied to oil for a very simple reason: in practice, both piston and jet engines are entirely dependent on it.<BR/><BR/>Therefore, now that the price of oil is structurally high and rising, it would be extremely irresponsible to treat mobility and primary energy supply as wholly separate entities.<BR/><BR/>For cars and aircraft, every alternative fuel comes with a severe penalty on range, performance and/or cost. Typically, this entails extensive modifications not just to fuel production and distribution but also to on-board storage and the conversion to kinetic energy.<BR/><BR/>Indirectly, electric trains can run on natural gas, coal, nuclear fission, even plain old sunshine. The grid operator will be able to transparently switch between these at a later date in response to demand and/or legislation, without any modification at all to the rail infrastrucuture. Only the electricity generation and grid control strategy have to be adapted.<BR/><BR/>Valuable fringe benefits include improved air quality, reduced GHG emissions and improved productivity - thanks to uninterrupted cell phone and broadband internet coverage. You can't work on your Powerpoint slides while you're driving nor while you're waiting in line to check-in, be scanned, board or pick up your bags.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-39137562775460569652008-08-11T08:09:00.000-07:002008-08-11T08:09:00.000-07:00How are we going to be witnessing lower overall tr...How are we going to be witnessing lower overall transit ridership when the fundamentals I explained in this post show that ridership will continue to grow?<BR/><BR/>Your assumption that every mass transit project breaks the budget is not supported by the evidence. Seattle's light rail line, opening next year, is on-budget. So too is the Metro Gold Line extension.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-59259491374481175252008-08-11T07:57:00.000-07:002008-08-11T07:57:00.000-07:00If there are now property developer interests supp...<I>If there are now property developer interests supporting a more effective transport system, that is good news. Of course, their support does not imply that its a useful system ... but neither does their support imply that its not. </I><BR/><BR/>If this were a zero-sum game, indeed this would be "good news". Unfortunately, we know from past history that there will be huge cost overruns, and the money to pay for that has to come from somewhere. And just like VTA light-rail, BART-SJ, BART-SFO, MTA red-line, etc, etc. we can look forward to massive diversion of funds from other, more cost-effective <I>transit</I> (NOT highway) projects to pay for the cost overruns. The end result is lower overall transit ridership.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-68043694311774971992008-08-11T07:46:00.000-07:002008-08-11T07:46:00.000-07:00There's an article in the SLO Tribune today, a rep...There's an <A HREF="http://www.sanluisobispo.com/breakingnews/story/435807.html" REL="nofollow">article in the SLO Tribune today</A>, a reprint of an AP article with some local stuff added, explaining that the airlines are in full-scale crisis mode. Carriers are cutting costs and flights everywhere they can. Oakland is canceling a terminal project. San Jose is deeply concerned about its nearly-finished terminal project. And SLO just lost its flights, as will Fresno, even though theirs were running 90% full. Even at 90% full the airlines were losing money.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>Why? High fuel costs. And not because of the spike earlier this year, but because of the basic upward tend I identified in this diary.<BR/><BR/>So harry g., I cannot agree with your assumption that airlines and highways are effectively handling the load. If you look 10 years out - the construction time frame for HSR - you can see that the need for a non-oil alternative is great.<BR/><BR/>Also, great to see you commenting here, BruceMcF.Robert Cruickshankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.com