tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post1816201470696336826..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: High Speed Rail is Good for the Central ValleyRobert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-52732517384513142122008-11-03T21:25:00.000-08:002008-11-03T21:25:00.000-08:00The Field poll is a poll ... given early voting, t...The Field poll is a poll ... given early voting, they include in their poll the question of whether a respondent has already voted.<BR/><BR/>Early votes themselves are counted when the polls close, same as votes cast on election day.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-72920711430230515652008-11-03T17:05:00.000-08:002008-11-03T17:05:00.000-08:00where does field poll get their data?from the vote...where does field poll get their data?<BR/>from the votes counted so far?<BR/>or from asking random people through out the california?bossyman15https://www.blogger.com/profile/04434928402545599443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-80411614152559346932008-11-03T13:23:00.000-08:002008-11-03T13:23:00.000-08:00@ rob dawg -my point was that it's fairly easy and...@ rob dawg -<BR/><BR/>my point was that it's fairly easy and cheap to provide new residents in the Central Valley with drinking water, especially in the Delta portion.<BR/><BR/>By contrast, the Bay Area and SoCal are both supported by aqueducts that were very expensive to construct but are now running near capacity. Also, the pumps near Tracy and those north of the Grapevine combined combined use around 2% of all electricity used in the state - twice as much as the entire HSR network running at full tilt would.<BR/><BR/>To the extent that HSR makes the Central Valley more attractive places to live and work, it will reduce the need to build expensive and ecologically damaging new water distribution infrastructure. The assumptions underlying CHSRA's analysis led to the conclusion that the demographic impact of HSR vs. the alternatives will be small.<BR/><BR/>The actual demographic impact would depend on whether the state decides it actually <I>wants</I> to make the Central Valley more attractive to avoid all manner of infrastructure capacity increases that would otherwise become necessary in the Bay Area and SoCal. Water and transportation are the ones that come to mind first, but much the same applies to sewers, electricity, landfills etc.<BR/><BR/>Plus, the state's economy is currently extremely exposed to known seismic faults. The Hayward fault in the East Bay has historically produced a major quake every 140 years or so - the last one was in 1868, USGS has handicapped the chance of another one in the next 30 years at over 90%. At a strength of 6.5-7 on the Richter scale, the financial damage alone could reach a staggering $170 billion.<BR/><BR/>So strategically, you would <I>want</I> as many of the new arrivals as possible to settle down in the Central Valley to minimize the cost of this future event and, the economy's ability to afford it.<BR/><BR/>HSR alone would not deliver this desirable outcome all by itself, but I reckon it would help California get there.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-77942298986888740162008-11-03T12:46:00.000-08:002008-11-03T12:46:00.000-08:00Well, assuming the 47-42 split with 11 undecided i...Well, assuming the 47-42 split with 11 undecided is accurate, I figure only 3 out of 11 voters need to vote yes for 1A to pass. <BR/><BR/>Or, more than 8 no's out of 11 votes for it to go down in defeat. <BR/><BR/>Again, assuming the latest poll is accurate... Advantage Yes on 1A.Brandon in Californiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14796810137823230737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-60595580849798466332008-11-03T12:15:00.000-08:002008-11-03T12:15:00.000-08:00The Central Valley is where the water is and the (...<I>The Central Valley is where the water is and the (known) seismically active faults are not.</I><BR/><BR/>Huh? Come on Rafael there are lots of good reasons to support HSR. No need to make ones up. The CV is supplied with water and blooms. Provide HSR and it will bloom as well but don't mistake resource with resource allocation.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-71475745497958350832008-11-03T11:55:00.000-08:002008-11-03T11:55:00.000-08:00One thing to keep in mind about the early vote res...One thing to keep in mind about the early vote results, reports are that the dems huge expected majority hasnt materialized yet:<BR/><BR/>From the LA Times:<BR/><BR/>http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2008/10/any-chance-cali.html<BR/><BR/>"With nearly 210,000 people having voted, the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage"<BR/><BR/>While this means that some dems are voting no, we wont really be able to see until tomorrow. It still has a chance but I think it will be close.<BR/><BR/>ZachAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-43026105198744714662008-11-03T11:20:00.000-08:002008-11-03T11:20:00.000-08:00@ anon -afaik, there have been a grand total of tw...@ anon -<BR/><BR/>afaik, there have been a grand total of two published polls on prop 1A. I don't know what sophisticated model you've used, there simply isn't enough data to make a confident prediction at this point.<BR/><BR/>We'll just have to see what happens tomorrow, at least turnout appears to be high. That suggests the youth vote will be stronger this year than ever before, largely thanks to the combination of Obama's popularity with this demographic, the ferocity of the prop 8 campaign and, the cratering economy.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-73839597015834780542008-11-03T11:10:00.000-08:002008-11-03T11:10:00.000-08:00I want to make a last minute adjustment to my pred...I want to make a last minute adjustment to my prediction of the results tomorrow.<BR/><BR/>I did a sophisticated sensitivity analysis using the 2 Field Poll data from July 22 and Nov 1st. <BR/><BR/>I only had 15 variables to work with so my analysis is +/- 1.2%. <BR/><BR/>Yes 43.6 No 56.4<BR/><BR/>Sorry guys. <BR/><BR/>PS. My poor computer took 3.5 hours to finally grind out the number. It should be real accurate --- at least as accurate as what the CHSRA has been pushing at us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-69431912689701535812008-11-03T10:52:00.000-08:002008-11-03T10:52:00.000-08:00Bossyman,Considering the timing, it's a little lat...Bossyman,<BR/>Considering the timing, it's a little late. Don't you think?Brandon in Californiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14796810137823230737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-7254234599673533992008-11-03T09:55:00.000-08:002008-11-03T09:55:00.000-08:00Hey Robert you should write a article about how CA...Hey Robert you should write a article about how CASHR can reduce the war on oil and how much it was costing goverment to do that. that would be good post of this proposition.bossyman15https://www.blogger.com/profile/04434928402545599443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-84943651861125330302008-11-03T09:44:00.000-08:002008-11-03T09:44:00.000-08:00In this cased, what's good for the Central Valley ...In this cased, what's good for the Central Valley is actually good for the Bay Area and SoCal as well.<BR/><BR/>The Central Valley is where the water is and the (known) seismically active faults are not. <A HREF="http://cahsr.blogspot.com/2008/10/spur-on-prop-1a.html" REL="nofollow">Discussion of CHSRA analysis</A> on this blog shows highlighted that <I>relative</I> population growth between 2002 and 2035 will be highest in the Delta, the southern Central Valley and the Antelope Valley - virtually regardless of whether HSR, the modal or the no-project alternative come to pass.<BR/><BR/>The difference is that HSR will give Central Valley cities a fighting chance to avoid sprawl by creating transit-oriented, naturally shaded neighborhoods in their downtown areas. These will be connected to each other and the rest of the state by fast, clean, safe trains. It will also give the people who choose to live there convenient access to long-distance flights out of SFO and Palmdale in phase I and Ontario in phase II.<BR/><BR/>Once you can get from Fresno to San Jose in 45 minutes and from Bakersfield to LA in under an hour, those cities become much more attractive to businesses and residents. That doesn't mean there will be <I>more</I> people there but better-educated ones earning higher salaries and contributing more in taxes. While agriculture will always be important in the Central Valley, HSR would allow it to attract entrepreneurs and venture capital needed to turn biotech breakthroughs in laboratories into new green collar jobs in pharmaceuticals, biopolymers, second generation biofuel production, water recycling, waste processing, solar architecture etc.<BR/><BR/>California is one of the most affluent states in the union because it keeps creating new industries and retaining its lead in them: movies, microprocessors, web applications and more. The next big challenge is getting more GDP out of a lot less fossil fuel. That will require acreage and fresh water, something neither the Bay Area nor SoCal have an excess of.Rafaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05471957286484454765noreply@blogger.com