tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post99905228588159387..comments2023-10-30T09:03:07.163-07:00Comments on California High Speed Rail Blog: HSR and TODRobert Cruickshankhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06906581839066570472noreply@blogger.comBlogger119125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-42040878176835504352009-08-14T21:20:44.416-07:002009-08-14T21:20:44.416-07:00and I ate four slices of pizza for dinner since yo...and I ate four slices of pizza for dinner since you're keeping trackAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-68660608020681745152009-08-14T21:19:36.754-07:002009-08-14T21:19:36.754-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-45726454043122229962009-08-14T20:23:42.738-07:002009-08-14T20:23:42.738-07:00Amazing
Jim commented 17 times in this threadAmazing <br /><br />Jim commented 17 times in this threadAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-35343778355604324082009-08-14T20:20:16.539-07:002009-08-14T20:20:16.539-07:00as for the "small market" in frenso. F...as for the "small market" in frenso. Fresno has higher passenger counts than san francisco.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-66753481611074522852009-08-14T11:37:00.395-07:002009-08-14T11:37:00.395-07:00the 1-5 route is not superior as you'd leave o...the 1-5 route is not superior as you'd leave out a third of the state... the part that is going to see the most future growth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-21439550703324295802009-08-14T11:07:57.071-07:002009-08-14T11:07:57.071-07:00Fred Martin is correct about the superiority of th...Fred Martin is correct about the superiority of the I-5 route.<br /><br />Maybe California will get lucky and some unforeseen problems with the Tehachapis detour will emerge that will wake up Kopp & co.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-10547929989393088292009-08-14T09:47:16.736-07:002009-08-14T09:47:16.736-07:00They will always lose money as does all other tran...They will always lose money as does all other transit, but it provides a service that americans want. We'll be investing new rolling stock starting this year with new baggage cars and either slepong cars or diners... I forget which... I think it dining cars and baggage cars as they are most in need of being replaced. The pioneer and other routes are looking at revival. the pioneer is very close to happening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-72488057093692986392009-08-14T08:32:17.877-07:002009-08-14T08:32:17.877-07:00Jim, Amtrak's long-distance trains are doing w...Jim, Amtrak's long-distance trains are doing well because the recession has reduced freight train volumes. This means Amtrak no longer needs to sit on a siding while a mile-long container train heads down in the other direction.<br /><br />However, those trains are still bleeding money. The profitable part of Amtrak, the NEC, is hurting in the recession rather than enjoying it, so Amtrak's losing even more money than it did in 2008, which was a very good year for it.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-34629674013636219032009-08-14T00:06:51.859-07:002009-08-14T00:06:51.859-07:00stop pretending like you give a damn about it and ...stop pretending like you give a damn about it and admit you just want it out of your back yard and will use any argument to make that happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-59843143730791229922009-08-14T00:04:48.624-07:002009-08-14T00:04:48.624-07:00"Going out of the way with very expensive HSR...<i>"Going out of the way with very expensive HSR infrastructure to get to a small market like Fresno is the problem. The I-5 is a much better alignment for 220mph HSR (no stops, hardly any grade seps=cheap, no NIMBYs, full speed between the two main cores), while the SR99 corridor should get fast regional trains to better serve the local rail markets that make up most of the existing ridership in that area. Needless to say, 220mph HSR doesn't work well if it is stopping all the time"</i><br /><br />wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-14683989688196261792009-08-13T23:52:53.846-07:002009-08-13T23:52:53.846-07:00just fyi-- amtrak california got full funding i...just fyi-- amtrak california got full funding in the budget. so no service cuts for our california riders.<br /><br />Amtrak is also going to increase long distance service offerings, in some cases, by increasing state partnerships ( including reviving the pioneer route).<br /><br />Amtrak long distance trains are very popular, more than ever. OTP is higher than its ever been, customer satisfaction is higher than its ever been and ridership is higher than its ever been which is pretty amazing because we have less and older equipment than we've ever had and fewer employees than we've ever had and all in the face of huge congressional funding struggles in the last admin. which means that we not only doing more with less, but excelling at doing more with less. My happy customers outnumber my disgruntled ones 100 to 1 and there's no business out there that is doing any better than that satisfying their customers. People right now are pissed at everyone from the airlines to the cable companies and everyone in between. There will always be a place for our long distance trains. Amtrak fully expects to be the leader in american high speed rail operation and is gearing up for that now. In addition to that, there has been a profound and fundamental change at amtrak just in the 9 years I've been here. and I'm a +skeptical+ rank and file front line employee, but I must concur, that indeed this company is stepping up, more so now that we are finally getting some respect from washington dc and the public instead of being look upon as some red headed stepchild. You try keeping moral up when the public is spitting on you, and you're threatened every budget with job loss year after year. amtrak employees have done a god damn amazing job with the shit they've been given to work with and the job they've been given to do. and the job gets done. everyday across this county. So get off my skirt Mary Martin you don't know shit about the railroad. Everyone on this blog including me are nothing but a bunch of hsr foamers. No one here is making hsr decisions. No one here has any power. No one here is doing anything except posting information and then arguing about said information. All I try to do is temper the woulda coulda should mights, with some actual reality about how things get done from a working on the railroad perspective. appreciate it or not. those who live in a dreamland of hsr perfection and utopia are going to be disappointed. with your all express / 1-5 /grapevine / altamont/ wishes. just as disappointed as the nimbys are gonna be. I'm going to go right on a limb and tell ou wahts gonna happen. Californian is going to get a basic, solid, utilitarian, functional, versatile new transportation system to compliment the ones we already have which will give more californians more choices. period. thats all its gonna be. thats all it needs to be. Id love to see this blog focus more on the details of the benefits and in support of that reality rather than go off on these - route via the moon and mars and power it with stardust- ideas. The chosen routes and existing plan are the right ones. from a railroad operations and passenger service stand point and exactly what california needs for the coming decades. ths system as designed is the right tool for job at hand. like it or not. and Im cranky cuz i was busier than shit today with no help and my back is in a knot so parden the rant. for my 20 bucks an hour i pull in about 100k a month for amtrak in ticket sales) did I already say get off my skirt Mary Martin? what do you do?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-61255613114067857722009-08-13T18:04:27.888-07:002009-08-13T18:04:27.888-07:00I should mention that in my last post, I used shor...I should mention that in my last post, I used short-distance and long-distance to mean "commuter" and "intercity" respectively, which is different from how I used them further upthread.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-88997848519703904872009-08-13T18:03:34.248-07:002009-08-13T18:03:34.248-07:00The SR-99 corridor can run nonstop trains, too. No...The SR-99 corridor can run nonstop trains, too. Not all trains will stop at Fresno and Bakersfield - in fact, I believe that most trains will skip all stations between the LA Basin and the Bay Area.<br /><br />While short-distance trains have a higher ridership than long-distance ones, they generate fewer profits. JR-East generates 27% of its revenue and 15% of passenger-km from the 2% of passengers who ride its Shinkansen lines. For JR-West, the comparative figures are 40%, 29%, and 3.5%.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-53588243279466166262009-08-13T17:52:49.496-07:002009-08-13T17:52:49.496-07:00Alon, longer trips are rarer trips, stemming from ...Alon, longer trips are rarer trips, stemming from the basic function of cities as transportation-cost-reducing agglomerations of people, so markets that regularly attract the same rider en masse tend to be shorter trips. It doesn't matter if the nominal fare is lower if the distance is lower (and cheaper to provide) and the ridership is significantly greater. Just compare the 30 BILLION annual transit riders in Tokyo to the 150 MILLION annual HSR riders. The longer the rail trip, the more serious competition from air travel becomes. Rail routes through urbanized conglomerations have the advantage of bypassing road congestion, but road congestion is often non-existent for intercity trips, especially if you are going through rural areas. Just compare I-5 in the CV to the I-5 in LA.<br /><br />NYC-DC is a great rail corridor, not just because of the two major activity hubs at each end over roughly 200 miles or so, but the major urban centers such as Philadelphia and Baltimore along the route (not to be compared with Fresno and Palmdale). <br /><br />Going out of the way with very expensive HSR infrastructure to get to a small market like Fresno is the problem. The I-5 is a much better alignment for 220mph HSR (no stops, hardly any grade seps=cheap, no NIMBYs, full speed between the two main cores), while the SR99 corridor should get fast regional trains to better serve the local rail markets that make up most of the existing ridership in that area. Needless to say, 220mph HSR doesn't work well if it is stopping all the time.<br /><br />Jim, are you seriously questioning the NARP data??? Has Bruce McF's fear of contrary arguments got you spooked? NARP is an advocate for Amtrak, and I am quite sure they are just using the ridership data that Amtrak is required to collect. NARP is not collecting its own ridership data when Amtrak already collects it. If the data is flawed, that's Amtrak's fault.Fred Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-12094276771327332692009-08-13T17:52:31.984-07:002009-08-13T17:52:31.984-07:00...and because Congress is willing to pay for it. ......and because Congress is willing to pay for it. In good years, Amtrak minus the long-distance trains makes an operating profit, which boils down to saying the NEC's profits are higher than the other short-distance trains' losses. NARP and other organizations motivated by nostalgia like long-distance trains because they remind them of the good ole days; those organizations typically also snub their noses at any attempt for Amtrak to move on and concentrate on HSR or other postwar inventions.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-26410713041990899712009-08-13T17:51:19.740-07:002009-08-13T17:51:19.740-07:00Bruce McF, we'll see how HSR fares in the next...Bruce McF, we'll see how HSR fares in the next federal transportation bill. It's going to be bloody, and California just isn't going to get the lion's share of the federal funding due to its limited proportional representation. The history of all federal transportation programs should be your guide. Use data and scientific reason, rather than postmodern semantics. Regarding ridership data, people are either on a train or not, not in some sort of quantum state of rhetorical being. <br /><br />As I said earlier, Bruce McF is extremely naive about the legacy of US federalism. Indeed, why should the feds be funding a project that is entirely within California? That goes against the meaning of the US Constitution's interstate commerce cause justification for federal involvement in transportation. For every federal dollar California gets, other states will demand similar levels of funding. In order for California to achieve $20 billion in federal funding for HSR, the total federal bill will need to be $160 billion due to proportional political representation. That's a very tall political order, since that will constitute a very large proportion of total federal transportation funding (the federal pie is ultimately constrained). Back to my original point: if CHSRA is expecting the feds to fund most of this project, the federal politics are "insanely" difficult. CHSRA is highly likely to run out of money in such a fed-dependent scenario.Fred Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-41675165746740417342009-08-13T13:59:38.070-07:002009-08-13T13:59:38.070-07:00and amtrak is getting ready revive more long dista...and amtrak is getting ready revive more long distance service because the people and states are asking for it. customer satidfaction with long distance trains is around 92 percent now. compare that to the airlines.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-35664320159332961662009-08-13T13:52:18.059-07:002009-08-13T13:52:18.059-07:00narprail is an outside advocacy group with their o...narprail is an outside advocacy group with their own agenda and preferences just like you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-47012172599828754102009-08-13T09:35:01.731-07:002009-08-13T09:35:01.731-07:00NYC-DC is an intercity corridor. True commuter cor...NYC-DC is an intercity corridor. True commuter corridors, like Irvine-LA or Poughkeepsie-NYC, only work if ticket prices are very low, say under $15-20 one way, which typically requires large operating subsidies. People are willing to spend $80 one way on an intercity trip, even a day trip, because they don't take it twice a day.Alon Levyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195377309045184452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-60845286970798832452009-08-13T08:36:27.921-07:002009-08-13T08:36:27.921-07:00Fred,
"Japan and France would never consider...Fred,<br /><br />"Japan and France would never consider HSR service to such a tiny travel market."<br /><br />Unfortunately, for Japan that is yes. <br /><br />Iwate-Numakunai Station (いわて沼宮内駅) in Tohoku Shinkansen had only 119 passengers/day in 2008. <br /><br />http://www.jreast.co.jp/passenger/2008_05.html <br />(sorry, I was not able to find the english version of this in JR-East website)<br /><br />And there are couple more shinkansen stations with less than 1,000 passengers per day.K.T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-66613187872860946322009-08-13T08:22:36.204-07:002009-08-13T08:22:36.204-07:00lyqwyd said...
"California has a lot of repre...lyqwyd said...<br />"<i>California has a lot of representatives, and both senators are in favor of HSR.<br /><br />Combine that with Northeast corridor and Chicago area politicians and that's already a lot of support.</i>"<br /><br />Its not just the Chicago area ... the states signing the MOU from the recent Midwest HSR Summit are all five Great Lakes States ... Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin ... as well as three Midwestern states ... Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri.<br /><br />And it only takes a bit of money on capital improvements for the Downeaster to make HSR funding filibuster-proof.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-69776635201883965122009-08-13T08:08:19.286-07:002009-08-13T08:08:19.286-07:00Fred Martin said...
"The idea of HSR being an...Fred Martin said...<br />"<i>The idea of HSR being an almost entirely federal program is insane, so the 80:20 match idea doesn't pass the political smell test.</i>"<br /><br />This is what happens when instead of trying to work out what the answer is, you have decided the answer is, and are trying to string together an argument that gets from the starting point to the pre-determined answer ... if you get to a gap in the argument, you have to bluff.<br /><br />"The idea of HSR being an almost entirely Federal program is insane" is one critical step in the logic of the argument.<br /><br />Around the world, the dominant transport services provided by rail services that fall in the DoT "HSR" categories are trips in the range of 100 to 500 miles.<br /><br />Around the United States, the capital spending in support of almost all trips of that length are heavily subsidized by the Federal government.<br /><br />The second leg of the argument consists of using the <i>inability</i> of conventional rail to offer the longer trips in this range as day trips to argue that a rail service that <i>can</i> offer these longer trips as day trips will therefore fail:<br /><br />"<i>The regional commuter-type lines are the best thing Amtrak has going. The NEC has a lot of commuter-type traffic, and the shorter routes between dense urban areas are where profits can be found. NYC-DC is essentially a roundtrip that can be done in a day.</i>"<br /><br />Its success therefore supports the view of rail service operators around the world that the key to improving the mode share of longer distance rail is to increase the opportunities to perform day trips between large population centers. That is not the <i>sole</i> transport function served by such routes, of course - indeed, routes that succeed in increasing those opportunities at the same time increase their competitive advantages in a wide range of transport market segments.<br /><br />"<i>In California, the Capitol Corridor and the Surfliners are the best services. Why?</i>"<br /><br />Because of the diversity of useful trips of one to three hours that they provide.<br /><br />"<i>Because they serve regional markets and commuter sheds. Even the San Joaquin service does distinctly better than the long-distance trains, ...</i>"<br /><br />... because the present average trip speeds of long distance conventional rail remove those destination/origin pairs from the day-trip market entirely - of course, with Express HSR technology, the largest intercity transport markets in the state fall within the one to three hour day trip range ...<br /><br />"<i>... and even the San Joaquin service gets most of its ridership from travelers within the Central Valley such as Fresno-Bakersfield and Fresno-Hanford -- look it up!</i>"<br /><br />This style of, "Why? Well I'll give you the answer that fits my conclusion and ignore the answer that has been the basis of successful development of new rail services around the world" argument works well with people who want to reach the same conclusion. So its fine for attracting ego stroking in a group of people who are looking for rationalizations to oppose HSR.<br /><br />The weakness of using arguments that are simply collecting whatever points that can be framed as if they favor the pre-determined conclusion is that they <i>depend</i> on not being questioned at their weak points.<br /><br />However, in the context of a policy debate, there will be those that question them on their weak points.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-72301790362428616072009-08-13T00:53:55.811-07:002009-08-13T00:53:55.811-07:00Amtrak has had many near-death experiences over th...Amtrak has had many near-death experiences over the years due to their record of incompetence and bloated inefficiencies, so they should be pursuing things that work just for their survival.<br /><br />The regional commuter-type lines are the best thing Amtrak has going. The NEC has a lot of commuter-type traffic, and the shorter routes between dense urban areas are where profits can be found. NYC-DC is essentially a roundtrip that can be done in a day. In California, the Capitol Corridor and the Surfliners are the best services. Why? Because they serve regional markets and commuter sheds. Even the San Joaquin service does distinctly better than the long-distance trains, and even the San Joaquin service gets most of its ridership from travelers <i>within</i> the Central Valley such as Fresno-Bakersfield and Fresno-Hanford -- look it up! <br /><br />http://www.narprail.org/cms/images/uploads/fact_sheets_trains08.pdf<br /><br />It's clear that the local, regional trains get the most ridership by far.<br /><br /> http://www.narprail.org/cms/images/uploads/sectors2008.pdf<br />http://www.narprail.org/cms/images/uploads/fact_sheets_all08.pdf<br /><br />I notice that Fresno has less than 1,000 rail passengers a day even with their ridership upswing, yet Fresno has minimal air service as well. Jim, I thought you said you sold lots of tickets for your train? Japan and France would never consider HSR service to such a tiny travel market.Fred Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-67751819254493893492009-08-13T00:13:30.070-07:002009-08-13T00:13:30.070-07:00@fredmartin
you don't know shit about what re...@fredmartin<br /><br />you don't know shit about what really goes on at amtrak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4263762637946594105.post-36547193608300084942009-08-12T23:32:50.257-07:002009-08-12T23:32:50.257-07:00Commuters vastly outnumber intercity riders in jus...Commuters vastly outnumber intercity riders in just about any operating scenario. Commuters are a target market that Amtrak neglects far too often. <br /><br />Chicago-St. Louis is a good link that Amtrak should be further developing, but Amtrak is a slave to federal politics in running all these long-distance trains.Fred Martinnoreply@blogger.com