Final Judgement in Atherton v. CHSRA

It's pretty much a formality at this point, but Judge Michael Kenny has issued his final judgement in the case of Atherton v. CHSRA, ordering the CHSRA to revise the EIR for the Bay Area to Central Valley segment of the project to address the concerns over noise/vibration and ROW sharing with UPRR that the judge cited in his initial decision. See both the Final Judgement document and the Peremptory Writ of Mandate below, and then my comments:

Final Judgment in Atherton v. CHSRA

Peremptory Writ of Mandate

As we explained earlier, the judge rejected plaintiffs' request to stay further HSR work. According the the CHSRA, this outcome does not impede them from continuing to move forward as they currently are with project-level EIR and design work, and should not jeopardize stimulus funding. The judge did not order a complete reopening of the full EIR process, and CHSRA is confident they can submit the revisions on time. The judge gave CHSRA 70 days to show their compliance (by decertifying the EIR - they have more time than that to finalize the revisions; thanks to the comments for pointing this out) although exactly what that means isn't precisely clear in the documents.

Although we'll hear the project opponents and those that filed the lawsuit claim victory here, it's difficult to see how those claims can be justified. The Pacheco alignment is upheld, CHSRA can continue to plan and design the system, they'll still be getting federal stimulus funds, and the judge has given them wide latitude in how they comply with the order to revise the EIR. Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of the plaintiffs' claims, particularly the main ones about the Pacheco alignment, were thrown out. The plaintiffs basically got lucky in that the judge found some other parts of the EIR that the plaintiffs never really focused on were deficient and necessitated a revision.

What was promised to us in the summer of 2008 as a lawsuit that would stop the project in its tracks and blow up the route decision has essentially fizzled. CHSRA will produce an improved EIR and address the UPRR issue, something they needed to do anyhow. The plaintiffs will get their court costs paid, but otherwise they've failed to accomplish their goals of undermining the HSR project.

Deal for LA Rail Car Factory Falls Through

by Rafael

AnsaldoBreda is an Italian manufacturer of passenger rolling stock, with a portfolio covering light rail, subways, standard speed and high speed products. SPCR radio reports that the company has walked away from a $300 million order for 100 light rail cars for Los Angeles MTA. In spite of earlier assurances, in the end the Italians were not willing to sign up to stiff penalties in the event of late delivery. It is now likely that the authority will have to execute an open tender process after all, which in the long run may well prove the best possible outcome.

What's Past is Prologue

In 2003, LAMTA awarded AnsaldoBreda a contract to build a new fleet of 50 model P2550 light rail cars with options for 2 x 50 more, in spite of delivery delays on two previous contracts. Evidently, third time is not the charm, as the company is late yet again - by three years, no less. The units already delivered are almost 6,000 lbs overweight, which means they cannot be used on certain lines.

Nevertheless, Mayor Villaraigosa pressed for these options to be exercised in a no-bid follow-on contract, with the understanding that the company set up a factory in LA and also move its corporate headquarters there. An LAEDC report dated March 2009 confidently forecast 535 manufacturing jobs and summarized that "in total, AnsaldoBreda will sustain continuing economic activity worth $368.5 million in economic output and 2,240 FTE jobs in Los Angeles County with estimated annual earnings of $91.1 million." Rumor has it the factory was to be built by an outfit headed up by the former chief deputy mayor.

Critics point out that this level of fresh employment could only be sustained with an annual output of 75 units, which would require additional orders from other US transit agencies. However, in addition its history with LAMTA, the manufacturer is now also several years late on unrelated orders from Denmark and the Benelux. The latter are for V250 "Albatross" high speed trainsets. Nomen est omen, though in all fairness the latter project has been hamstrung by factors beyond the company's control. Given AnsaldoBreda's global track record of missed deadlines, LAEDC's implied forecast that it would become a major player in the US rail car manufacturing industry was perhaps more pious hope than realistic expectation. After all, the company's assembly plant in Pittsburg never grew to the originally intended size, either.

Note that the deal that just fell through would have been ineligible for federal co-funding because the current surface transportation bill contains a five-year deadline for exercising options on existing contracts.

Plan B: Go Fish

With the passage of Measure R last year, LAMTA's needs have anyhow expanded to a total of around 200 cars for both subway and light rail in addition to refurbishment of the existing fleet. The increased size of the deal means the authority now has a much better chance of attracting bids from major players in the rail transit vehicle industry, some of whom also have high speed trains in their portfolio. Names mentioned in the radio interview: Siemens Mobility, Bombardier Transportation and Kinkisharyo, though this list was not meant to be exhaustive.

In principle, a fresh order would be eligible for federal co-funding in the context of even the current surface transportation bill, though that is already being extended for 90 days at a time because the Obama administration has decided to postpone discussion of the next one. Whichever bill would apply, there are long-standing FTA rules against federal co-funding if a tender process is skewed in favor of bidders who offer to set up a local manufacturing facility. Nevertheless, in order to help the Mayor save face, LAMTA intends to write just such a skew into the rules for the upcoming tender. That means sticking with the strictly local funding model in the (forlorn?) hope that USDOT will redirect its generosity to other component projects of Measure R so it ends up a wash.

For reference, Siemens Mobility already has a light rail assembly plant in Sacramento. Bombardier Transportation has rail maintenance facilities in Southern California and is also present other US states. Patentes Talgo S.A. is present in Washington state and is setting up a factory in Wisconsin.

Potential Implications for California HSR

While LAMTA has no formal authority whatsoever over vendor selection for the California HSR project, Los Angeles does wield significant clout in Sacramento. Don't be surprised if Mayor Villaraigosa attempts to sweeten the pot by dropping heavy hints regarding possible follow-on business from CHSRA to encourage bidders to set up shop in his city.

Like it or not, industrial policy - i.e. manufacturing job creation/retention - has been a factor in vendor selection in many HSR projects all over the world, especially for the prestigious initial order. I suspect CHSRA's role in vendor selection may therefore end up limited to the technical and commercial pre-qualification of a shortlist, though neither the Governor nor the legislature have said so publicly.

More Passengers Choose Trains Over Planes In Spain

For several decades, the world's busiest air route was the "Puente Aereo" (air bridge) between Madrid and Barcelona. At a distance of about 400 miles on the ground, it's also a perfect distance for high speed rail. Ever since the AVE line was completed to Barcelona's Sants station early last year, high speed rail has been winning a greater and greater share of the Spanish travel market - despite Spain being hit extremely hard by the global recession, with unemployment of around 20%.

Now the AVE line has surpassed the Puente Aereo in terms of travelers. More people are taking the train rather than the plane between the two largest cities of Spain:

Spain’s bullet train is beating the plane in the race to win passengers. For the first time, more passengers have chosen to travel on the high-speed AVE rail link between Madrid and Barcelona than have opted to fly — a switch that could influence British ambitions for a high-speed rail network and add impetus to the creation of a second high-speed line in the UK.

Between July and September, 651,498 passengers made the 314-mile journey between Spain’s biggest cities (slightly farther than London to Newcastle), a rise of 21 per cent compared with the same period last year.

In comparison, 643,512 travellers made the journey by aircraft during the same period, a fall of 7.5 per cent compared with the third quarter of last year.

Madrid-Barcelona is the fifth busiest air route in the world, with four airlines offering 116 flights a day, according to the Official Airline Guide in July. Since the rail link opened last year, Renfe, the Spanish state rail operator, and the airlines, led by Iberia, the national flag carrier, have fought a fierce battle to win passengers. The high-speed train, which takes 2hr 40min to travel between Madrid and Barcelona, at 236.3 kilometres per hour (146.8mph), has won over commuters with competitive fares, greater comfort and the absence of elaborate airport security. It also offers promotions to attract tourists, as well as business travellers.

Once again, it is worth reminding readers that Spain offers a very good comparison to California in terms of not just high speed rail - but population density and geography. SF Transbay to LA Union Station is 432 miles, and our trains are projected to have a higher operating speed.

Ultimately, the Spanish experience suggests the SNCF report and the Brookings Institution are both correct in suggesting the LA-SF route, the nation's second busiest, will support a high HSR ridership. As our airports already burst at the seams during flush economic times and with rising oil prices, it's clear that we need the HSR option in California. Spain's success story will soon be replicated here.

Sort of fitting given Spain's role in California history...

New Pro-HSR Group Forms on Peninsula

As reported in the SF Business Times on Friday (subscription req'd for whole article) a new pro-HSR group has been formed on the Peninsula. The Alliance for Sustainable Transit and Jobs is comprised of some of the Bay Area's heaviest hitters, including representatives of the largest businesses in the region. They don't yet have a website, but that doesn't really matter right now; these groups have already been very active behind the scenes in lobbying for high speed rail, and their coming together as a formal organization portends much greater public visibility. From the article:

Countering critics of high-speed rail along the Peninsula, business and labor groups have banded together to support the approximately $8 billion section between San Francisco and San Jose.

The Alliance for Sustainable Transit and Jobs “was formed in response to recent community outbursts regarding the high-speed rail route through the Peninsula cities and the forthcoming lawsuits, political posturing and other blocking maneuvers,” according to a flyer promoting the group, which will be based in the Belmont offices of the San Mateo County Economic Development Association.

In addition to SAMCEDA, business groups in the alliance include the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, Bay Area Council, Silicon Valley Leadership Group and the chambers in San Mateo and Redwood City. Labor groups in San Francisco, Santa Clara County and San Mateo County are members.

“We’re coming from the point of view of what (high-speed rail) might bring to the Peninsula” in terms of jobs and other economic boosts, said Rosanne Foust, a SAMCEDA vice president and Redwood City mayor.

The Bay Area Council is of particular importance here. 60 years ago they came together to promote regional mobility in the wake of the transportation crisis the World War II boom created; out of their early proposals came the system we know as BART. While they didn't design the system itself, they helped get it launched and built, and look to do the same with HSR. Their member list reads like a who's who of Bay Area businesses, including companies like Chevron and Google; their executive committee includes representatives from Wells Fargo, Clorox, Bank of America, even Janet Yellin, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. Similarly, the Silicon Valley Leadership Group includes similar (and even some of the same) companies, as does the SF Chamber of Commerce. Clearly, this is a serious effort to promote high speed rail and counter the distortions and NIMBY attacks on HSR on the Peninsula.

Of course, it's not the case that just because a bunch of large corporations say HSR is a good thing, we should just do as they say. In this case, though, the interests of the Bay Area's largest employers match those of working people and families living in the Bay Area and on the Peninsula, clear majorities of whom showed their own support for HSR by voting for Prop 1A last fall.

Having talked with some BAC staff about HSR, they made it clear that for their member companies, sustainable transportation is a very high priority. California is in a severe economic crisis, part of a global recession. When the global economy recovers, multinational corporations will look for places to invest. And it won't necessarily be California, especially if we are burdened with a transportation system that gets gridlocked during times of growth and is dependent on oil, a commodity whose costs are definitely going rise. Those companies want to invest in the Bay Area, but are saying that high speed rail needs to be part of the equation, part of the recovery, if they are going to make long-term plans for the region.

Again, there's nothing to say that the Bay Area should do something just because their largest employers recommend it. But that does place the burden on HSR deniers and NIMBYs to explain to people - especially people on the Peninsula, many of whom depend on the companies represented by the organizations that have formed this new pro-HSR group - where jobs and economic growth are going to come from without high speed trains. The answer is likely to be an assumption that the conditions of the late 20th century will just somehow magically continue indefinitely into the future, and that answer will likely not mention that the current economic crisis was caused by an overreliance on late 20th century sources of growth (sprawl, oil, finance capitalism).

Most Peninsula NIMBYs are those who were the "winners" of the late 20th century economy, those who own property near the tracks and prefer to maintain that asset value at the expense of the economic prosperity of others. Presumably they don't think they have any need of HSR, such is their economic security, but since HSR might possibly in some alternate universe threaten their property values, they're going to fight it tooth and nail. Even if that causes long-term economic distress for the region.

Even those who might not want California's 21st century economy to be dominated by a handful of large corporations can find value in high speed rail. HSR will create a green dividend that makes capital available for new entrepreneurial ventures by reducing spending on oil-based transportation. The hundreds of thousands of jobs HSR will create will produce more buyers of local businesses' products, more tax money for local governments to improve quality of life, and the trains themselves will enable Peninsula residents to have a broader spectrum of job opportunities and mobility that a 21st century economy requires.

In short, HSR offers opportunities for businesses big and small, for workers young and old, for cities along the tracks and those that aren't. The Alliance for Sustainable Transit and Jobs, along with truly grassroots groups like Californians for High Speed Rail, will help give voice to those on the Peninsula who so far have been drowned out or ignored by the loud but few NIMBYs.