Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Prop 1A Results Thread

NOTE: We've moved! Visit us at the California High Speed Rail Blog.

We got an HSR president into the White House. Will California follow?

The Secretary of State's site is running VERY slowly. The LA Times has a much better site. As of 10PM and with 18.2% reporting we're down 49.3% to 50.7%. Much of the early numbers are from conservative counties and absentees, which lean Republican. The high population counties - SF, Alameda, LA - still have yet to report most of their votes. LA County in particular is going to take some time since voting there was extremely heavy.

This is unfolding as I expected - a very close race. We will likely not know the result until the morning. Still, I will update this every half hour or so.

10:30 PM - Yes 50.6% (1,942,293), No 49.4% (1,898,211)

11:00 PM - Yes 51.2% (2,170,844), No 48.8% (2,066,537), 33.7% reporting

11:30 PM - Yes 51.5% (2,566,659), No 48.5% (2,415,829), 43% reporting

Alameda and Santa Clara County have under-reported, but so have Orange, San Bernardino, and San Diego. This is still going to be very close.

The Overhead Wire is blogging results of transit elections around the country, including Seattle where a massive light rail expansion is getting widespread support.

72 comments:

yeson1a said...

Robert.well then is most of this YES coming from the Valley?

Rafael said...

Results of all train-related props in CA:

Prop 1A - High Speed Rail

Measure B in Santa Clara county - BART extension to Santa Clara (66.67% needed to pass)

Measure Q in Marin, Sonoma counties - SMART (66.67% of combined votes needed to pass)

Anonymous said...

YES on 1A now AHEAD!!

Brandon in San Diego said...

The san Diego Tribune ste updates automatically. That is unlike the LA Times which appears to need a refresh and then select the measure.

And, I see updates every now and then that show a majority 'Yes' voe, and then is swaps back right away.

But, the trend is that the margin is decreasing.

Per the UT website at this moment (10:19pm)

22% reporting and the margin is -34k out of almost 4m votes.

Yes 1,889,167 50%
No 1,853,185 50%

Spokker said...

LEADING AT 50.8%

OH GOD IT HAS A CHANCE

yes on 1a said...

SF just came in with 124,000 yes with 62% in !!!! GO CITY!!!

Spokker said...

50.9%!

Anonymous said...

Arg, Ive invested to much emotion into this prop for it fail now

Anonymous said...

As of 10:16pm:
Yes 1,889,167
No 1,853,185

Looks like SF just popped in with 63% of their vote in now. LA county still only at 10%. This is VERY GOOD.

RT

Anonymous said...

Excellent.

We should see our lead solidify as the night goes on. Good work everybody.

Brandon in San Diego said...

I am not a fan of the San Diego Union Tribune, it's too small town for a region having more than 3 million people. But, here the link to their special page: San Diego Union Tribune

Brandon in San Diego said...

Ahead by 44k!

Anonymous said...

LA County prop 1A link:

http://rrccmain.co.la.ca.us/0018_StateMeasure_Frame.htm

This is updating faster than the state or LA Times website.

16% in now with the county going 51.66% for 1a versus the la time site showing 50.50%.

Yes !

RT

Rafael said...

Once more with linkage...sry

---

Results of all train-related props in CA:

Prop 1A - High Speed Rail (needs 50.01% to pass)

Measure R in LA county - transit plus roads (needs 66.67% to pass)

Measure B in Santa Clara county - BART extension to Santa Clara (needs 66.67% to pass)

Measure Q in Marin, Sonoma counties - SMART (needs 66.67% of combined votes to pass)

YES on1A said...

SF had 18,000 voting alone at city hall today...only 63% in ..the city should bring in another 30,000 YESON1A!!!!!!I have a bottle of Veuve Clicquot in the fridge!!!!

Anonymous said...

The LA Times site shows us up by 44,000. But the LA County site shows that we have an additional 12,000 lead not yet reflected.

Moving the right way.

yeson1A said...

Gee its not doing that well in LA
at this point???winning yes but not by a huge amount..its 70% in SF

Brandon in San Diego said...

ahead by 69k with 31% reporting

Anonymous said...

yes up by 60,898

Robert Cruickshank said...

LA has only reported like 10% of the vote so far. It will take several more hours at least to have them report the whole thing.

Anonymous said...

At 10:41 we are up by 68,130.

Anonymous said...

Wow, LA county just updated.

Now up by 31,000 in LA County. With Yes now showing 52.55% in LA County. This is increasing % wise over time.

RT

Anonymous said...

Robert,
Get your LA County 1A data here:

http://rrccmain.co.la.ca.us/0018_StateMeasure_Frame.htm

RT

Spokker said...

1A just broke 51 on the slow ass site.

Rafael said...

Looks like prop 1A and Measure Q will both pass. Yea!

Measure B now just shy of 2/3 at 66%. Not sure I want that one to pass, project managers have lost cost control.

Measure R now just shy of 2/3 at 64.9%. Hope that passes.

Unfortunately, prop 5 passing by a landslide. That'll be $8 billion for new prisons, please.

Anonymous said...

At 10:56pm, a 104,307 lead. Big jump in last 5 minutes.

Spokker said...

LA Times and SF Chronicle have it at 51.2% in favor.

Keep going, keep going, keep going!

yes on1a said...

Whooohooo!! up by 100,000 now THE CITY of SAN FRANCISCO ion at 89% has 174,000 yes votes!!!

YESON1 said...

Its A gift from the people of San Francisco!!!!

Anonymous said...

OMG, SF county is where it came from. With 98.4% of the votes in there, it is Yes 174,299, and No 45,603.

Thats some pretty serious Yes voting.

bossyman15 said...

where is the data for SF?!

Rob Dawg said...

Don't celebrate yet. It might get near 52% but that's as high as it will get and then all night the remote counties will erode that peak.

Anonymous said...

At 11:01, up by 118,974.

mike said...

I'm cautiously optimistic. 1A has a 1.4 pct pt lead on the site I'm looking at right now (NYT), and as far as I can tell the conservative precincts seem to have reported somewhat more of their votes so far than the liberal ones. In other words, the expectation at this point should be that props will move slightly towards the liberal direction as more votes get counted.

But anything could happen. We probably won't know one way or the other on 1A until tomorrow morning. I guess at this point though it's safe to assume that it will not lose by a large margin. So if it loses at 48% or 49%, it's likely to reappear when the budget is better.

bossyman15 said...

i really need to be sleeping but i don't know how i can sleep. :/

Anonymous said...

LA County now Yes 412,167 and No 358,745. Thats now a 53.46% lead there, with 29% in. It keeps going up in LA County.

Maybe the first results there were mail in, primarily republican. Now todays votes are starting to predominate.

RT

mike said...

rob - Looking at the % precincts reporting by county (NYT elections site), I would say that the "remote counties" are more likely at this point to have reported the majority of their vote than the urban counties. But it's definitely no slam dunk at this point.

Anonymous said...

At 11:06 we are up by 121,929. The trend is still our friend...

RT

mike said...

anonymous - Almost for sure the first LA County votes were early voters/mail-ins. LA was reporting something like almost 400,000 votes with 0% of precincts reporting...presumably those must all be early votes/mail-ins. Even now a substantial portion of the LA County votes are probably early votes. As we know from the most recent Field Poll, 1A is weakest among early voters, so it's not a big surprise that it's going up.

Michael said...

Orange county is only 11% reporting. Sadly, that is probably where most of our hurt will be coming from.

But we can do it!!

yeson1A said...

Only San Diego county could ruin this...no other county has the size
LA has got to do better...I think we win.!!

Anonymous said...

At 11:21 our lead has slipped to 102,645. But LA County is still under reported.

The state site has LA up by 31,000, but the county site has us up by 65,000.

Looking good still.

mike said...

yeson1a - Orange Co is actually same size as San Diego Co. Orange, San Diego, and San Bernardino are the worst counties for us in terms of sheer size and negative vote percentages (and none has reported a majority of their votes yet). The good news is that LA, Santa Clara, Alameda, and San Mateo have yet to report a majority of their votes.

Anonymous said...

At 11:26 we are up by 150,830. Best lead of the night!

mike said...

Looking at the SD County site, the winning percentage in LA right now (7%) is almost exactly equal to the losing percentage in SD (8%). But LA is over triple the size of SD. The OC losing percentage has narrowed a bit as the vote count has risen (now losing by "only" 16%), but still quite wide. Can't find info on the San Bernardino county site.

Anonymous said...

At 11:31, up by 160,579.

Anonymous said...

At 11:36, we are up by 165,708. Still waiting for the LA County update in the next couple minutes.

mike said...

At current trends, my guess is that the unreported LA votes will approximately cancel out the unreported OC + SD votes. Unreported Santa Clara Co. votes will more than cancel out unreported San Bernardino votes. That leaves us with a "firewall" of substantial unreported votes from Alameda, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, and Monterey counties - all places where 1A is leading by 15-25 percentage points - to balance out unreported votes from small rural counties. We may just win this thing.

Spokker said...

I guess Altamont vs. Pacheco didn't matter much to Bay Area counties lol.

And based on the maps we're seeing that Bay Area voters didn't quite care about the concerns from certain cities along the peninsula.

Robert Cruickshank said...

Monterey County is a clusterfuck when it comes to elections - they understaffed the polls in Salinas, perhaps deliberately, and had to keep the locations open until at least 9. They are not counting ballots until that's all taken care of, likely due to staffing problems.

I think Mike is correct in his analysis. This is going to be very close but winnable.

Spokker said...

Monterey County is almost 57 percent in favor with 35 percent reporting. You've got to be at least proud of that so far, Robert.

Anonymous said...

At 11:51 biggest lead yet, 167,268.

yes on1a said...

Im Proud of my home...128,696 yes votes at 79%... They need to christen the first trainset here!!

Robert Cruickshank said...

Monterey County will vote for Prop 1A. We don't have a whole lot of voters here, but I am hoping Alameda and Santa Cruz come up big.

We're actually doing fairly well in Riverside County - with half the vote counted we're only down by 3,000.

mike said...

Doing the math at the moment on the LA Times map, it looks to me like the unreported SD + OC votes would likely just cancel out the 160,000 vote lead that 1A currently has. Then San Bernardino and Santa Clara's unreported votes cancel each other out. Which leaves us with unreported votes in LA, Alameda, Santa Cruz, and Monterey to offset shortfalls in smaller counties. The risk is that, within counties, the reporting precincts so far could be disproportionately liberal rather than conservative. I don't think so (in fact I suspect the opposite is true if anything), but there's no guarantee.

Anonymous said...

Here is LA County for the last 4 updates...

At 23:00 29% in, 53.46% Yes
At 23:20 37% in, 53.45% Yes
At 23:40 44% in, 53.70% Yes
At 24:00 51% in, 53.99% Yes

The trend is still going up. More than half in now. Raw numbers put us up by 101,000 in LA County.

RT

Anonymous said...

At 12:01, up by 173,131.

Mark in Riverside said...

Here's a link to San Bernardino County
http://www.sbcounty.gov/rovelectionresults/

it's currently at...
NO 88659 55.70%
YES 70527 44.30%

with 22% reported
The website say it won't update again until 1:00 am

Brandon in San Diego said...

It's looking really good for HSR.

I wish I could say the same for my gay friends. If 8 passes, banning gay marriage, I'd like to see it returned to voters asap. And, I'd like to see a signature drive in Utah to get it on the ballot as pay back to conservative interests from that state that came over here to influence the outcome.

Brandon in San Diego said...

Up by 231k with 59% reporting at 12:22a

Anonymous said...

At 12:16, up by 181,708.

If you assume a minimum of another 100,000 from LA County when the other half comes in, things are looking pretty good.

RT

Anonymous said...

LA County last 5:

At 23:00 29% in, 53.46% Yes
At 23:20 37% in, 53.45% Yes
At 23:40 44% in, 53.70% Yes
At 24:00 51% in, 53.99% Yes
At 00:20 57% in, 54.23% Yes

I'mnot going to bed until this is locked up ;-)

Anonymous said...

Wow, Measure R in LA County is right at 66.67%...

938,438 Yes
469,179 No

Excel says 66.6686%

Not quite there, but looks like we will get to the 66.67%.

Thats $30 billion for mass transit and road improvements!

yeson1a said...

Kern County(Bakersfield) close to coming over to the yes side

mike said...

Looking at the LA Times map, if every anti-1A county continues to vote against 1A at the same proportion as right now, then the anti-1A uncounted votes will reduce 1A's margin by around 200,000 votes. But right now the map gives 1A a 223,000 vote lead. And there are substantial uncounted votes in LA, Santa Clara, Monterey, Alameda, and Sonoma counties (all of which favor 1A, often by a substantial margin). Definitely looking good.

Rafael said...

Measure R in LA county just above 2/3 with 58% of precincts reporting.

Measure B in Santa Clara appears stuck just shy of 2/3 with half of all precincts reporting.

The Press-Democrat says Measure Q in Marin and Sonoma has passed.

New thread please!

mike said...

And the trend in every county I'm following closely (LA, SD, OC) keeps going up in 1A's favor over time. The win margin in LA (9 pct points) is now two full points larger than the lose margin in SD (7 pct pts). And of course LA is much bigger county.

mike said...

rafael - Wow, even Q passed! Unbelievable (given that it failed in a better economic climate). It's looking like a long night for our NIMBY friends.

Spokker said...

God I'm so worried about SB County.

Robert Cruickshank said...

New new results thread

mike said...

CA election site show it up 51.7-48.3 with 65% of vote counted. To lose at this point, 1A is going to have to do 5 percentage points worse in the remaining votes than it is doing right now (it needs to get at least 46.8% of the remaining votes to win).

Joseph said...

Well, It looks like we wont know for sure untill the morning.