No Policy Change in the Stimulus?

Barack Obama offered another in his 21st century fireside chats, talking again about the economic stimulus plan that will be his first order of business after his inauguration on January 20:



As before, Obama mentioned roads as part of the stimulus, but not rail or transit. Already it's led some transportation bloggers to question Obama's priorities and his overall commitment to policy change. If this stimulus is going to be effective it needs to not prop up a failed status quo, but needs to challenge the freeway-sprawl complex and the state DOTs that still refuse to embrace transit.

The stimulus won't ignore transit entirely, and some funding for rail and bus projects will likely be in there. The bigger concern is the politics - if Obama keeps leaving rail out when he describes fundamental national priorities, it's going to be that much harder to make the policy changes we embarked upon in 2008 stick. At some point Obama is going to have to use the bully pulpit to help Americans see that rail must become a much more central part of our transportation and economic policy. It would be good if he did that at the outset of his administration.

Instead I am hearing reports that policy change will come later in 2009 when the Transportation Equity Act (TEA) comes up for reauthorization. At that time, Congressional insiders claim, we will finally see the bigger shift away from highways and towards passenger rail. Kerry's HSR bill will be taken up around the same time and will likely be a part of that broader policy shift.

It's not how I would do it - politically it makes more sense to open with a call for change, while you have a 75% approval rating. That has a tendency to reduce resistance in Congress. And the implications of rail or highways have broader economic impacts - the steel industry is pushing hard for more transit projects hoping they can get a badly needed boost.

Still, Obama's stimulus can redeem itself if it helps ease state budget deficits. That is currently the #1 threat to California's high speed rail project. Although Arnold proposes $123 million for the California High Speed Rail Authority, a larger use of the Prop 1A funds, and the $950 million intended for other passenger rail are blocked by the state's cash crisis. If the Obama stimulus can come through with $10-$20 billion, or ideally $40 billion, for the state then it would help ease the crisis and ensure that HSR planning and engineering work can continue without interruption.