2008 Business Plan Published

As promised the California High Speed Rail Authority has published the 2008 Business Plan. Remember, this would have been ready in time for the election had Republicans like Roy Ashburn not blocked passage of the state budget for three months.

The plan itself is primarily an update of construction costs and ridership estimates. The overall cost of SF-Anaheim is pegged at $33 billion, of which $12 billion to $16 billion will come from the federal government. It's worth noting not all of that is going to be in the form of cash, but much will be in the form of low interest bonds that the feds will float - Obama has for example proposed a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank that could help provide construction cost support to high speed rail here.

The plan also anticipates that the ridership and operating surpluses are at their best when HSR fares are 50% of airfares on the LA-SF route. Some HSR deniers might scoff at the likelihood of that happening given possible cost increases - but consider that airfares will be rising over the next ten years, likely at a much faster rate than HSR fares will climb due to inflation. The airline crisis hasn't gone away.

The updated business plan also notes that if there are problems in getting funding to build the entire system, the urban segments can likely pay for themselves. Of course I have often railed against the possibility of turning HSR into a glorified commuter rail, and strongly believe that the first items that ought to be constructed are the tracks through the mountains - Pacheco Pass and the Tehachapis - which are the current choke points for intrastate passenger rail. In any event this is one of the issues we will need to monitor very closely over the coming months and years.

Of course, the HSR deniers are still out in force, getting their misleading quotes into the newspapers. Today's SF Chronicle article on the business plan is a good example, giving leading HSR denier Jon Coupal, of the Howard Jarvis Association, the chance to spew his truthiness:

Critics said they were disappointed by the plan released Friday, saying it lacked the necessary detail.

"We waited three months for this?" said Jon Coupal, spokesman for the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, which opposed Prop. 1A. "I will say it's very pretty and has nice photographs. But as a business plan to present to venture capitalists to convince them to invest, it falls far short."

This from the guy whose organization's business plan involves bankrupting our state? I find it amazing that anyone in the media sees him as a credible source when it comes to government spending and balancing out the numbers.

Let's also be clear - the HSR deniers will claim that everything "lacks the necessary detail" up to the day the first passengers board the trains. If Coupal wants to see informed discussion about the details instead of misinformation intended to kill the project he would do well to click on our comments, where the details are given very intense discussion.

The business plan update provides the necessary information for our state to move forward on the project voters endorsed on Tuesday. At this point HSR deniers are trying to undermine the project - if they want to be useful, then join us in the comments and show how we can improve it. We all want the best possible HSR system for our state. It's time for Californians to come together and make it happen.

No Rest for the Victorious

We've been rightly celebrating our victory on high speed rail and Prop 1A all week. But already there are reminders that the fight is by no means over, and that the HSR deniers who were rejected by the voters on Tuesday are regrouping in their effort to kill high speed rail.

One of them is the Contra Costa Times, which distinguished itself during the campaign by writing one of the most ridiculous anti-HSR editorials of the season. Today they have published an editorial calling on the state to delay the sale of Prop 1A bonds. This editorial is an excellent example of the strategy and framing that the HSR deniers will use to try and overturn our victory on Tuesday.

California has a huge budget deficit and a record high bonded indebtedness, which would increase by nearly $10 billion if the rail bonds are sold.

This state has far more pressing transportation needs, such as highway construction and maintenance, better metropolitan rail and bus service, and retrofitting bridges and overpasses.

Just because voters have authorized the sale of high-speed rail bonds does not require the state to sell them. At the very least a credible business plan and commitment of matching private and federal funds should be obtained before any Prop. 1A bonds are sold.

As usual the editorialists at the Contra Costa Times don't read the newspapers - if they did they'd know that federal money is on the way (unless they think Dianne Feinstein will be powerless in a Democratic Congress and with a Democratic President). The California High Speed Rail Authority has received letters of interest from over 40 private companies.

But what's really significant about this editorial is the way they set up their next line of attack. They trot out nearly every one of the zombie lies that have circulated about HSR - won't get enough riders, sure to soar in cost, not something that meets the state's transportation needs - and attached it to a political strategy of delaying the bond sale.

This flies in the face of economic reality. Numerous economists have called for the infrastructure bond sales to be accelerated in order to provide jobs and economic stimulus that the state badly needs. In particular, the $950 million in Prop 1A earmarked for non-HSR passenger rail ought to be sold immediately to provide increased passenger rail service. Gas prices will start to rise again in the spring, putting the screws to an already weak economy. Improved passenger rail provides jobs and cheaper commutes, putting more money in consumers' already stretched wallets.

Of course, it has always been the plan to spend Prop 1A money in concert with private and federal funds as they are secured. The Contra Costa Times again demonstrates its ignorance of just how this project will work when they frame it as a budget-busting boondoggle without plan or method. Unfortunately that has always been the M.O. of the HSR deniers, and this editorial should serve as a reminder that they haven't gone away, and will continue to try and derail this project at every opportunity.

Next Steps

Now that we have won the fight for Proposition 1A, we need to start thinking about our next steps. This blog isn't going anywhere - I founded it in March to promote the project. Of necessity it became a pro-Prop 1A site (and before that we spent a lot of time on AB 3034), but Tuesday's victory does not mean we're going to close up shop. Far from it.

Prop 1A was the beginning. To ensure that we follow through and build this project - and build it right - an independent, grassroots movement is going to be needed. The HSR deniers have been defeated but they aren't likely to go away, and will continue to try and kill this project through other means.

Over the next few months and even years, here are some of the issues we will be focusing on to ensure that our SUPERTRAIN gets built right. Can't wait to share a bottle of champagne or three with all of you on the first train, but we still have a lot of work to do to get there.

1. Defend High Speed Rail. California isn't the first state to approve a high speed rail project. In 1991 Texas gave a franchise to a consortium to build an HSR system linking the "triangle" (Houston-DFW-San Antonio), only to see the project canceled in 1994 after heavy lobbying by Southwest Airlines. In 2000 Florida voters approved an HSR project concept but in 2004 under Jeb Bush's leadership they killed the project.

The same thing could happen here. The HSR deniers showed their willingness to distort facts and even lie to try and kill HSR. They had some powerful allies in the state legislature. Roy Ashburn may be on his way out, but we cannot rest on our laurels. Defending the high speed rail project and ensuring that the will of the voters is respected must be our top priority. Especially over the next few months and years when hard decisions will have to be made about financing, engineering, and other aspects of the project.

2. Secure Federal Funding. If we're going to build this we need to make sure that the promises of federal support materialize. As I have consistently argued, we have every reason to believe that they will, especially now that we have an HSR White House in the form of President Barack Obama and VP Joe Biden. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Dianne Feinstein came to California last week to stump for Prop 1A and now we need to ensure they hold up their end of the deal. (Note: just after I posted this I saw that Dianne Feinstein is planning to direct money our way out of a recent $1.5 billion HSR starter bill approved in Congress earlier this year.)

We'll need to get started on this in January 2009 and lobby the Congress and the White House to provide funding to the California High Speed Rail project. Once we put steel in the ground the HSR deniers are going to have an extremely difficult time killing the project.

3. Watchdog the Implementation Process. There are a lot of decisions made about this project in the next few years that will be essential to its overall success, from technology to engineering to routing. Some station locations have yet to be finalized, and some cities are still debating how the tracks will be laid. We have a lot of very smart, very experienced people here on the blog familiar with trains and high speed projects. We can and we will watch over the entire HSR process to make sure the best system is built and operated for the benefit of all Californians.

4. Fight the Lawsuits. As rafael has correctly reminded us, big projects like this attract lawsuits like moths to a flame. These lawsuits can delay construction and drive up the costs. We will have to provide some public pushback against frivolous lawsuits, such as those already filed. We're not a legal team, of course, but lawsuits on big public works projects are as much about politics and PR as they are about the courtroom.

5. Communicate With the Public. For all of the above to succeed we will need to keep the public informed. The HSR deniers have shown themselves to be skilled at flooding the media with misinformation, playing on Californians' unfamiliarity with large-scale passenger rail projects. Our task is to counter that by providing accurate information to the public as best we can. We'll continue to ramp up our media outreach, including op-eds and LTEs. Our communications work hasn't ended with Prop 1A's passage, not by a longshot.

6. Boost Other Passenger Rail. For HSR to be a success in California it will need to be integrated effectively with other passenger rail systems, whether it's commuter rail like Caltrain and Metrolink, urban rail like VTA light rail and LA Metro Rail, or other intercity rail like Amtrak California. We can and should support those projects.

We should also work to ensure that as much of that $950 million in Prop 1A gets delivered to non-HSR passenger rail as quickly as possible. This will boost public support for HSR and for passenger rail itself, especially if we can provide service where none or little currently exists. Here I am specifically thinking of the proposed Coast Daylight service between SF and LA via the Coast route (Salinas, SLO, Santa Barbara). Projects like that which are ready to go pending funding can help boost ridership and familiarity with intercity rail, thereby solidifying public support for HSR as well.

7. Improve the Blog. I started this site on Blogger in March because I am primarily a writer and a strategist, not a web designer. I needed something quick and simple. This blog has been functional enough, but sometimes not as robust as needed. I'd especially like to make folks have to pick a username before posting, be able to provide "there's more" (some of my posts can get kinda long) and track IPs. Plus CMS like WordPress or Textpattern can provide better layout, design, readability.

The one drawback is this website already has a badass SEO (search engine optimization). We're #2 on a Google search for "california high speed rail" and #5 for "high speed rail". Going to a unique URL will cause us to lose that temporarily, but I'm sure we can find a way to rebuild it.

The one thing I can't improve is the quality of discussion. You guys are the best. When I started the site I figured it would basically be an annex of Calitics and maybe get some comments of its own. But the site has come into its own. Now we have many excellent commenters and, as I've come to discover in the last few days, a lot of readers around the state and in the transit community.

Progressive organizing is only as good as the quality of the interactions within the movement. This site is nothing without you all. I look forward to continuing to support, build, and eventually ride California High Speed Rail with you.

All Aboard!

There are still some votes to be counted in the Inland Empire, and my own home county of Monterey still has not fully reported, but with 95% reporting and a 422,000 vote lead Proposition 1A looks to have passed. Remaining votes in San Bernardino and Riverside counties will have to run much more strongly against Prop 1A than the current results indicate for us to lose.

I have to admit my joy at this is somewhat tempered by the abomination of Prop 8 passing as well, but Prop 1A's passage is an enormous victory for Californians and their future. We stood up to the NIMBYs, the new Hoovers, the oil companies, the right-wing think tanks, and told them "you can't take away our future."

It is especially nice to see Prop 1A joined by other successful transit measures, such as Measure Q - the SMART passenger train from Sonoma to Marin, and Measure R which will provide passenger rail expansion in the LA area (including new connections to Union Station, which will become one of the busiest HSR stations in the state).

The $950 million contained in Prop 1A will also provide immediate benefits to other passenger rail service in the state, from Caltrain and Metrolink to existing Amtrak California lines. It will also likely help get the Coast Daylight service funded, which will serve the SF-LA corridor via the coast (Salinas, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara).

Several folks need to be thanked for their work in getting Prop 1A approved, especially the staff of the California High Speed Rail Authority - Mehdi Morshed and Dan Leavitt in particular. Quentin Kopp and Rod Diridon did an excellent job explaining the project to the public and defending against some ridiculous criticisms from HSR deniers in the Legislature. Emily Rusch at CALPIRG also did excellent work helping build a coalition for Prop 1A, as did that entire organization and their on-campus supporters - I'm sure Dan and Cynthia at UC Santa Cruz are celebrating this morning. The Sierra Club deserves thanks, especially those who ensured that the statewide organization endorsed Prop 1A.

The last-minute campaigning by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Dianne Feinstein was a needed shot in the arm, reassuring Californians of the project's soundness and showing that it is very likely to get the federal funding it needs, especially under President Obama. Fiona Ma has been a key figure here in California for high speed rail, from her high profile public activism to her work in the state legislature. The folks at the "official" campaign are to be congratulated as well for putting together this victory. The Fresno Bee has been a great source of pro-HSR commentary and they should be pleased that Fresno County approved Prop 1A by a 10 point margin.

And of course everyone who helped make this blog the center of Prop 1A and HSR activism online. Matt Melzer and Dennis Lytton have provided invaluable support and information over the last few months. Bart Reed of The Transit Coalition has much to celebrate this morning and I thank him for all his support and help with this site.

Our commenters deserve a special shout-out. rafael has forgotten more about trains than I'll ever know, and has been a key resource for all of us with his information and insight on the technical details and the big picture. Michael Kiesling has provided useful information as well and informed commentary. "mike" has provided some valuable commentary, especially his smackdown of the Reason Foundation's lies. Nikko, spokker, bossyman15, tony d., and other commenters have kept our spirits up and also helped spread pro-HSR information as it was needed.

Now it's time to think about the next steps. This blog isn't going anywhere, although we will move to a unique URL and install a better blog software, which will happen by the end of the year. There is still a lot of work to be done for California High Speed Rail, especially securing federal funding and maintaining a close eye on the planning decisions that will be made in the coming years. We can also expect to see a raft of lawsuits; every major project has them, and we'll be here to provide insight or debunking as needed.

I look forward to being on that first high speed train rolling out of the Transbay Terminal, destination Anaheim, and hope to see as many of you as possible on there with me.

UPDATE: There are still absentee and provisional ballots out there. We don't yet know where or exactly how many, which is why the news outlets have not yet called it for Prop 1A. We are confident of victory but I felt I should make that note. The Secretary of State expects to have these reported tonight or tomorrow.

UPDATE 2: LA Times calls it for Prop 1A. We very nearly won San Diego County - 48%-52%, with a 35,000 vote difference.

UPDATE 3: The LA Times map of Prop 1A:



Apparently Del Norte County's early reporting was flipped, so no they didn't vote for the SUPERTRAIN. But every county that is getting a station in Phase I did vote for it, except Orange County. That's OK, we'll give them a station anyway. San Bernardino and San Diego counties were fairly close, and the vote was extremely close in Riverside County. The county with the widest margin of victory was SF, 80-20. The strong pro-HSR vote here in Monterey County (58-42) bodes well for when it comes time to fund the Monterey Branch Line.