Yes on Prop 1A Yard Signs and Bumper Stickers

The "official campaign" has a web store up and running. In addition to yard signs and bumper stickers they've got t-shirts, messenger and tote bags...even a teddy bear.

Would love to see some of these signs in Menlo Park...

LA Times Endorses Yes on Prop 1A

The largest newspaper in the state has come out in favor of high speed rail:

There's something undeniably alluring about a bullet train -- the technology is so powerful, the speed so breathtaking, it makes quotidian trips seem exotic. Perhaps that's why proponents of Proposition 1a, which would authorize $9.95 billion in bonds for a high-speed rail line connecting Northern and Southern California, think it would be wildly successful. They predict the line could draw 117 million riders a year by 2030, compared with 3 million now taking the high-speed Amtrak train in the densely populated Northeast. And they say it will turn a billion-dollar profit by then even as it keeps ticket prices remarkably low.

The projections by the measure's opponents, led by the libertarian Reason Foundation in Los Angeles, are much less sanguine and more persuasive. If voters approve Proposition 1a, it seems close to a lead-pipe cinch that the California High-Speed Rail Authority will ask for many billions more in the coming decades, and the Legislature will have to scrape up many millions of dollars in operating subsidies.

And yet, we still think voters should give in to the measure's gleaming promise, because it's in their long-term interest. Weaning travelers from gas-powered, road-choking cars is critical to the state's health and competitiveness. A high-speed rail line would not only provide a cleaner and faster alternative to automobiles, it would encourage transit-friendly development.

The measure isn't as big a risk as it would be if the state were footing the entire bill. The "backbone" segment from Los Angeles to San Francisco is projected to cost $33 billion, with about 75% from federal and private sources. Until those funds are secured, the state won't issue most of its bonds. If the line never gets built, the state's losses will be well under $2 billion. That's not too much to wager on a visionary leap that would cement California's place as the nation's most forward-thinking state.

I could do without the citation of the Reason Foundation study that we thoroughly discredited here. It is far from a "lead pipe cinch" that the Authority will ask for "many billions more" - and it is highly unlikely that they'll need ongoing operating subsidies.

But what I find so interesting about this editorial is their argument that even if the discredited Cox-Vranich study were right, HSR is still worth doing. They are absolutely right that "weaning travelers from gas-powered, roads-choking cars is critical to the state's health and competitiveness." I would add airlines to that as well, something we have to develop an alternative to anyway.

The editorial also nails it at the end - if the matching funds don't come through, then we don't issue the bonds, California loses at most $2 billion, and we survive just fine. The LA Times editorialists saw right through all the baseless, factless, nonsensical claims that HSR will cost us upwards of $100 billion and instead focused on this state's dire need for just such a system to revive our economy and improve our environment.

The LA Times should be congratulated for shifting public focus to the "gleaming promise" of high speed rail. It is the most important infrastructure project this state has considered in 50 years. We will be kicking ourselves very soon if we reject Prop 1A. The LA Times gets the big picture. About time someone in the media did.

Yes on Prop 1A Media

Citizen Newscaster is a local documentary/public affairs filmmaking outfit here in the Monterey Bay region, and they recently put together a Prop 1A video that includes yours truly explaining the many benefits of high speed rail. The video also includes interviews with Debbie Hale and Christina Watson of the Transportation Agency for Monterey County explaining some of the other aspects of high speed rail and how Monterey County might benefit from the $950 million included in Prop 1A for connecting rail. The video is online and will air on local cable here in Monterey on AMP channel 24, in Santa Cruz on channels 27 and 73, and in San José on channel 15.

Additionally, the National Association of Railroad Passengers has teamed up with Alfred Twu to create Prop 1A informational cards. That link also has a PDF version you can download and print and distribute to your friends, coworkers, fellow train riders, folks waiting in an airport terminal, etc. Below are some lower-res versions of each side of the card:





Thanks to Matt Melzer of NARP for helping get these made and printed!

Federal Matching Funds: Down Payment Edition

Note: The following post is from rafael, who offers an excellent discussion of federal matching funds.

Robert has kindly invited me to submit a blog entry on federal matching funds for Prop 1A.

HSR critics have repeatedly pointed out that federal and private matching funds for the California high speed project are not yet confirmed. Proponents retort that there is no chance of securing such funds until and unless California voters approve the proposition.

Nevertheless, even in the midst of the economic meltdown, Congress has been pressing ahead with its Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008 (version H.R. 2095.EAH). Among other things, it includes $9.776 billion for Amtrak plus $1.5 billion for nationwide HSR development over the next 5 years. For the purposes of the bill, those are defined as systems capable of top speeds in excess of 110mph. The Amtrak-owned Northeast Corridor receives special consideration, but all 11 identified HSR corridors are eligible to submit proposals between 60 and 270 days after the bill is signed into law.

Unless it is knocked off the Senate schedule by new developments on the $700 billion TARP bill, it is expected that the final cosmetic amendments will be approved before Congress adjourns for the elections. President Bush had previously raised objections, e.g. on the nationwide installation of interoperable positive train control systems, ostensibly on the grounds that they are "not yet proven". Similar systems are already de facto standard equipment in e.g. Europe and Japan. The bill, which may well pass with a veto-proof majority, would make them mandatory by 2018.

If Prop 1A passes on Nov. 4, the state of California will have a very strong basis for making an early claim on the funds allocated by H.R. 2095 (assuming it, too, passes). At a minimum, the state should be looking for federal matches for the $190 million reserved for Amtrak California plus $900 million for the remaining preparatory HSR work required before construction can be put out to tender. Additional matches for HSR feeder services other than Amtrak and for HSR construction proper would be sought at a later date.

First, California should insist on leading the development of the next generation corridor train equipment pool, largely on the strength of work already done by Caltrain (Appendix C), NCTD and SMART. The objective should be to create a regulatory basis for the mixed operation of FRA-compliant freight trains and off-the-shelf passenger train designs designed to meet European crash safety standards (EN 12663 and EN 15227). This should include traditional locomotives, unpowered cars and self-propelled cars (DMU/EMU). Permitting mixed traffic under certain circumstances would reduce wear and tear on the tracks and, greatly reduce both acquisition and fuel costs. Moreover, Caltrain's results so far suggest crash safety in grade crossing accidents would be at least maintained if not improved.

Simply put, mapping a path toward mixed traffic will gradually reduce capital and operations overheads for both Amtrak and commuter rail services nationwide. It would greatly facilitate the public transport renaissance needed to deal with structurally high oil prices, chronic congestion on the roads (associated with productivity losses), air quality and CO2 emissions by the transportation sector.

Second, total ridership on Amtrak California's three corridors is second only to that of the NEC. There are solid arguments for installing PTC technology there as soon as possible, especially if lightweight rolling stock is ever to become the next national passenger rail standard. The definition of PTC should include the development and implementation of open software standards for emergency data communications between railroad dispatchers and even individual trains. At the the discretion of the Secretary of Transport, other railroads may also be required to implement PTC. The bill allocates a total of $250 million for implementation, with a requirement that non-federal sources must pick up at least 20% of the tab. In the wake of the Chatsworth disaster, California should position itself as the testbed state for PTC reliability and interoperability.

Third, California is furthest ahead in the development of a true high speed rail project (top speed in excess of 186mph). It will therefore blaze a trail in developing the ROW acquisition, detailed planning, vendor selection and engineering expertise required to construct and operate such a system. The other 10 identified HSR corridors will all benefit greatly from the experience that will be gained by an initial $900 million investment in the California system.

In particular, a new "High Speed Rail Academy" would be tasked with developing a cadre of homegrown specialists to be employed by state and federal oversight agencies, planning bodies, engineering firms, construction companies and operators. Given the large number of HSR projects around the world, the US cannot rely on the availbility of foreign talent alone. The academy would be a virtual organization leveraging universities, vendors, contractors and existing operators to provide formal certifications at multiple levels. Its research focus could be on HSR-specific safety issues (incl. e.g. anti-terror measures and wildlife trespass identification/prevention), on rail-wheel noise reduction to enable nighttime (cargo) operations at reduced speed and, on reliable low-latency broadband internet connectivity for both in-cab signaling and enhanced passenger information/productivity/entertainment options.