California Members of Congress Lobbying Hard for HSR Money

As the decision point for awarding $8 billion in federal HSR stimulus nears, and with some $50 billion in applications submitted, California's federal representatives are making a strong push to ensure California gets a significant portion of those funds:

Employing every tool of persuasion from gift books and phone calls to hallway chats and high-level letters, including several to be sent as early as Friday to the White House, the state's lawmakers are making their case for $4.7 billion. But with 23 other states likewise seeking funds, and merit supposedly mattering more than politics, success could be elusive.

"We think because California is further along in this effort, we're well placed to receive federal funding," Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, insisted Thursday....

"We're doing a number of things," Costa said, when asked how California is promoting its high-speed rail bid.

Still, the longtime rail advocate acknowledged that California will "probably" not receive its entire request. Speaking at a U.S. High Speed Rail Association conference Thursday morning, Costa shared the stage with congressional colleagues who have their own plans.

Which isn't unexpected. I would be surprised if we got less than $3 billion, and would be pleasantly surprised if we got $4 billion or higher. There will be pressure on USDOT to distribute the funds widely, but there is also a recognition that if you spread the money too thinly, it won't do much good at all.

Jim Costa has been a longtime champion of HSR, having authored the 1996 legislation that created the CHSRA and got this project off the ground. But our Senators are getting in on the action as well:

"I'm very hopeful we'll get a large portion of what we're asking for," Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer said Thursday. "We're ready for it."

As part of the lobbying effort, Boxer said she, Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be sending President Barack Obama another letter as early as Friday. It will likely remind Obama that California is providing $9 billion from a bond measure, and it will be accompanied by letters from the Sierra Club and the Chamber of Commerce to show support spanning the political spectrum.

Trying for the personal touch, Costa sent Obama and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel copies of historian Stephen Ambrose's book about the building of the transcontinental railroad, "Nothing Like it in the World." And this week, California High-Speed Rail Authority leaders roamed Capitol Hill and huddled with Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

Since January, records also show, lobbyist Mark Kadesh -- formerly Feinstein's chief of staff -- has been paid $120,000 to advocate for California high-speed rail.

I don't know that a Stephen Ambrose book is going to make the difference - perhaps sending Rahm to Spain to ride a special AVE train with the destinations changed from Spanish cities to California cities ("next stop: Los Angeles Union Station" instead of "proxima estacion: Barcelona-Sants") would have more of an impact - but it does show that CA is making an all-out effort.

Of just as much importance is the fact that Obama Administration officials have repeatedly stated that California is likely to get a significant piece of the HSR stimulus. I am confident they'll keep to that pledge.

Rod Diridon colorfully explained to the New York Times:

"We've likened it to California and the high-speed rail program being the ugliest girl in town, or the ugly duckling, and she was growing up and nobody wanted to be associated with her," Diridon said. "Her uncle gives her $9 billion, and everyone wants to take her to the prom. Well, everyone wants to take us to the prom now."

I'm not quite sure that's accurate. It's more like the attractive boy or girl in your class who you had a huge crush on, but you weren't sure if they were available or not; their parents are kind of strict and tightfisted and might not approve of he or she dating. But now you've heard from the parents that they do approve of the date, and what's more, they're willing to give you some money to buy him or her dinner. Now you know what to do - bust a move.

Close But Not Quite in Modesto

It's HSR editorial season, it seems, and the latest entry comes from the Modesto Bee. It's certainly not the sad joke of an editorial the Contra Costa Times put out, but it still demonstrates many of the common flaws the state media uses to assess the project - particularly an inability to examine the project in context. The Modesto Bee at least opens the editorial mentioning $4.50 gas, but unfortunately they don't consistently apply that all-important point in their commentary. A quick examination follows.

the Senate Transportation Committee conducted hearings on the rail concept in December and January, and recently released a report with six recommendations -- none of which are yet addressed in Galgiani's bill. Perhaps the most important is to require the commission to produce a business plan "consistent with a standard financial prospectus." We also agree with the committee that construction needs to take place on regional segments before the long-distance rail is built.

I've consistently been arguing against using that report as a guide for assessing the HSR project - the report is very deeply flawed, especially in its total failure to assess HSR in the context of permanently high fuel costs and the financial risk that poses to the state. I also have argued against lowering the priority of the long-distance segments unless there are ironclad guarantees that those WILL be built after the regional segments. Without such guarantees there is no point to approving the bond.

Quit low-balling. The cost for this all-new railroad has been set at $33 billion, with $7 billion more needed to add service from Merced to Sacramento and from Anaheim to San Diego. These estimates haven't changed in six years -- and no one believes them. A 2005 World Bank policy study shows that major rail projects usually cost 44 percent more than budgeted.

This is not a useful statement. What did the World Bank study point to as the cause for the increased costs? Rail projects in California such as the Metro Gold Line are being delivered on-time and on-budget. Without an understanding of the mechanisms behind those cost increases it is dishonest to use that study to predict the HSR project will go over budget.

Who will pay? Proponents say the federal government will be an important partner, but Wednesday the House of Representatives approved only $1.75 billion -- $350 million a year over five years -- for all the nation's high-speed rail projects. The rest, say backers, will come from private investors. But large banks and hedge-fund investors are reeling from the mortgage crisis. That leaves taxpayers and riders.

This is deeply misleading - and I'm putting that generously. The House bill was an Amtrak bill. The HSR money was gravy, unexpected and unplanned. It was thanks to the work of Jim Costa, Fiona Ma and Nancy Pelosi that the money is there at all - but it is NOT intended to be the final amount of funding Congress will give HSR. In April we reported that Congress is anticipating $60 billion for HSR in the 2009 transportation bill. Barack Obama is a vocal supporter of HSR and would likely support and help pass such an investment. There is NOTHING to suggest $1.75 billion is all Congress will give to HSR. The Modesto Bee surely knows this, or they should have done their research before publishing that part of the editorial.

As to the banks and large investors, the credit crisis won't help. But neither is it crippling. There is a lot of overseas capital looking for long-term stable investments, and CAHSR would be a natural site for them to park their money. And if they don't then we can and should sink more money into it. Of course the Modesto Bee, like every other media outlet that has pontificated on HSR, has refused to ask what the cost of doing nothing is - it is certainly higher than the cost of building HSR.

Get real about ridership. Proponents say that by 2030, they expect to generate $1 billion in profit based on 100 million riders a year. That means every Californian would have to ride the train three times a year. When asked about the validity of such numbers, a person familiar with the details whispered, "crazy." Another called them "black box" figures.

This is more of the anonymous sourcing and vague reporting that the media is way too often passing off as journalism. Who claimed the numbers were "crazy"? How is the public to assess the validity of such a statement? The Modesto Bee is irresponsible in not sourcing or explaining that claim.

Further, who says HSR will only be used by Californians? We do still get a lot of tourists, many of whom will use the system. Business travelers will use it far more often than three times a year.

But the most important aspect of the ridership question is fuel costs. The Modesto Bee led off the editorial mentioning high gas prices - so why ignore it here? Ridership may not hit exactly 100 million by 2030 - though I am certain that it will, as ALL HSR lines around the world have rapidly hit their ridership expectations - but with permanently high fuel prices and the resulting airline crisis it strains credibility to not expect ridership to be sufficient and high.

Be careful where you dig. The commission has hired Parsons Brinkerhoff to manage the program. Earlier this year, the company was forced to pay $458 million for problems with its "Big Dig" project in Massachusetts, whose final cost ($14.6 billion) doubled original estimates.

I was not under the impression Parsons Brinkerhoff had been given any permanent contracts. We plan to watch this aspect of things quite carefully.

The Modesto Bee concludes "High-speed rail is a good idea that should be pursued." We strongly agree. But we wish the Modesto Bee would take a more informed approach to assessing the project - and stop trafficking in unsourced, unverified, specious claims in order to raise doubts about the project.

"Air Quality is the Key" to the Central Valley's Future

The Central Valley has long been the forgotten region of California - as Southern California and the Bay Area dominate the state's media and politics, the Central Valley's needs often appear to go unmet. Yet this region is one of the fastest-growing parts of our state, and will make up the bulk of the high speed rail route. The Central Valley needs economic development assistance, major transportation infrastructure development, and a program of smart transit-oriented development to replace the growing reliance on sprawl. And as rail advocate Alan Kandel reminds us, the high speed rail project will help with another core need of that region - cleaning up the notoriously polluted air of the San Joaquin Valley:

Here’s what’s puzzling. With as bad as the air in the Central San Joaquin Valley is alleged or purported to be, there isn’t a single Central Valley based municipality that has even a semblance of passenger rail service above and beyond what’s provided by Amtrak California, except maybe in Stockton and Tracy which are served by the hugely successful Altamont Commuter Express to and from the south Bay Area. To those folks, that must be a godsend.

What’s amazing is, over the years patronage numbers on Amtrak’s “San Joaquin” trains – right up there with their “Pacific Surfliner” and “Capitol Corridor” train counterparts – have soared! These three services are ranked in the top six in the national Amtrak system. These didn’t attain these noteworthy spots by accident either. And, I’ll bet an even greater number of Valley (and state) residents will be traveling via Amtrak in the days, weeks, months and years ahead even, given gas prices going up the way they are. Yet, understanding this and with as much as people embrace and use the passenger train service, why, it seems, the thinking isn’t directed to electrified light- and/or heavy-rail intracity services in Central California boggles the mind.

In fact, a 2006 Fresno Bee article explained that lung problems have soared among residents in recent years, and the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District estimated that to counter this trend, the region needed to eliminate 400 tons of pollution per day by 2011. High speed rail would help accomplish that task.

High speed rail is going to be a godsend for the Central Valley. It will link Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Fresno, Visalia and Bakersfield to the rest of the state, bringing jobs and economic opportunity to its residents. It will make travel much easier for them - and cheaper as well. Most importantly, it will help clean up the region's worsening, polluted air.

Instead Arnold Schwarzenegger and freeway advocates propose to drop $6 billion on modernizing and upgrading Highway 99 between Stockton and Bakersfield. With soaring gas prices - and diesel nearing $5 a gallon - is this the best use of money for upgrading Central Valley transportation?

In contrast to Southern California and Bay Area HSR critics like Martin Engel, the Central Valley is very strongly supportive of the project. Central Valley politicians like Cathleen Galgiani have helped provide leadership at the state level, and Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) has been a strong advocate of HSR, helping create the project when he was in the state legislature and helping build support for it in Congress. Virtually all of the chambers of commerce up and down the Valley support the project, and local governments in towns like Fresno and Visalia are already beginning to plan their downtown developments and transportation strategies around high speed rail.

But it may have been a comment on Alan Kandel's post that said it best:

Being concerned about what you breath is the ultimate quality of life issue, and people who can leave some times do. I left due to the lack of any meaningful effort to address the issue. The Great Valley Center was talking about new towns of 80,000 to 100,000 people on the far western side of the valley and I knew AQI was only going to get worse.

You can defend yourself or at least take some action to limit your exposure to crime, or blight or school quality, or any number of issues in the community, but you can't take a break from breathing the air.

I said it at the time to my classmates in Leadership Fresno and here it is again; air quality is the key to nearly every issue in Fresno and the SJV.

Quentin Kopp and Jim Costa on HSR

Two of the leading figures in the high speed rail project have published op-eds in this week's issue of Capitol Weekly: Quentin Kopp, chairman of the California High Speed Rail Authority's board, and Jim Costa, Democratic Congressman from the 20th district (Fresno).

They are both interesting previews of what a fall HSR campaign might look like. Kopp and Costa's op-eds both emphasize the following factors:

- Congestion relief
- Job creation/economic growth
- System profitability
- Environmental benefits

Interestingly, Costa's op-ed is more focused on the congestion relief and jobs creation aspect:

The short-term and long-term economic impacts of a high-speed rail system would be tremendous for California's economy. Construction of the system is estimated to generate almost 300,000 jobs. Following construction, the system will provide 450,000 permanent jobs in California. These jobs will have a huge ripple effect into other areas of California's economy, such as the service and manufacturing industries. Overall, for every dollar invested in this system, we will see two dollars in return.

Any Californian who travels more than fifty miles to work, or who travels for pleasure will tell you they would love a headache and traffic-free route to their destination. Whether flying from Los Angeles to San Francisco, driving back and forth from the Inland Empire to San Diego, or commuting from the Central Valley to the Bay Area, drive and fly times can total four or five hours of travel time. High speed rail can not only cut these travel times significantly, but ease the grind of congestion Californians have while traveling in-state by car or air.

The "for every dollar invested we will see two dollars in return" figure is interesting, and while I'd love to see the origin of that claim, the overall concept that this project will produce economic growth well beyond the initial investment is clearly true, whatever the actual figures turn out to be. It would make travel within the state easier, especially as rising gas prices and peak oil begin to price more and more Californians out of intrastate travel.

And the immediate economic impact of the system is considerable. California's unemployment rate now stands at 6.2% and rising, having soared a stunning 0.5% in March alone. 300,000 construction jobs would be a significant economic stimulus, especially considering how hard hit the state's construction industry has been by the housing market collapse.

Quentin Kopp mentions these figures as well, but spends more time emphasizing the environmental benefits:

From Earth Day to the Environmental Quality Act, California has always been known as a leader in pioneering environmental protections. But with air pollution worsening, we've lost ground. Electric high-speed trains will restore our leadership role in the "green" movement.

High-speed trains will eliminate nearly 18 billion pounds of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming each year. That's equivalent to removing more than one million vehicles from our roads annually. They will also reduce dependence on foreign oil by up to 22 million barrels per year.

As populations continue to increase, high-speed trains are constitute a key pillar in local efforts to clean up what has become some of the nation's dirtiest air. Statewide, California's population will rise to 50 million people in 20 years.

These numbers are, to me, just as considerable as the jobs figures discussed above. Living six blocks from Monterey Bay, I'm acutely aware of the impact of global warming on California's cities. Concern over rising sea levels is already forcing Bay Area planning agencies to prepare to relocate residents and businesses when the bay starts rising. The economic benefits of reducing dependence on foreign oil should be obvious to anyone who has filled up a gas tank lately. And the reduction in carbon emissions is also important, given that by 2018 Californians will almost certainly be paying some form of carbon fees - whether an outright carbon tax or passed-on costs from a cap-and-trade system - every time they drive and fly, making HSR an even more competitive and affordable alternative.

It seems that these will be the four pillars of the official HSR campaign this fall - congestion relief, job creation/economic growth, system profitability, and environmental benefits. Personally I would consider emphasizing the costs of oil-based transportation as well, but then public awareness of peak oil is still depressingly low (there's an idea for your next movie, Al Gore). Given the economic and environmental concerns that are at the top of Californians' list of priorities, however, the approach Kopp and Costa are taking makes a great deal of political sense.